AUD/NZD Analysis: Bullish Momentum Fueled by Institutional Posit

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AUD/NZD shows strong potential for continued upside, supported by large speculators who are holding long positions, as indicated by the latest COT data. This aligns with the typical contrarian dynamic, where retail traders remain predominantly bearish, positioning themselves against the trend.

When retail sentiment is overwhelmingly negative, it often creates an opportunity for institutional players to push prices higher, targeting retail stop-loss orders. This dynamic suggests that AUD/NZD is well-positioned for further gains as institutional buying pressure outweighs the retail skepticism.

With speculators backing the bullish trend and retail traders positioned against it, the pair is primed for sustained upside. Traders should keep an eye on key support zones and potential entry points to capitalize on the continuing bullish momentum.
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After analyzing the COT reports and retail sentiment, I adjusted all my weekly positions accordingly. Based on the analysis I shared this weekend, I initially considered 6-7 pairs but have now narrowed it down to 4. The other positions were either scaled out in profit or closed at break-even.

Currently, I remain short on the following: USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY, and AUD/CAD. I've scaled my positions and managed stops using ATR-based adjustments.

This is how trading works: new data means reassess and check if anything changes your thesis—not hope for the best.
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