BTC: Why the bullmarket already started earlier this time
I was also taken by surprise that the bullmarket started earlier this time, than back in 2015.
Back then, we had a whole year of consolidation with a classic Wych accumulation phase for the whole year of 2015.
With two shakeouts.
A look at the monthly picture tells us, that the monthly Stoch RSI is already starting to rise sharply, going above 20.
Last time this happened, we saw the start of the bullmarket, which happened in late 2015.
So this should have accordingly happened in late 2019.
But apparently this time we're 6 months too early. Why, what's going on?
Well, I have some theories.
1. More people know about the halving in mid 2020, and want to get in as early as possible => More early buying => Earlier bullmarket start
2. Stock indices are performing very strongly, and I see a positive correlation between BTC and stocks. If stocks make new ATHs, BTC will perform also strongly
3. Number of daily transactions soon at ATH: blockchain.com/de/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?timespan=all
Therefore adoption is continuing. Also some other positive news as potential ETF and lightning network etc.
Therefore, we might see the top of this bull cycle already in mid 2021, something like May-July 2021.
Interesting and surprising, because I thought BTC would rather slow down.
But one has to instantly adapt if BTC changes its behavior.
Back then, we had a whole year of consolidation with a classic Wych accumulation phase for the whole year of 2015.
With two shakeouts.
A look at the monthly picture tells us, that the monthly Stoch RSI is already starting to rise sharply, going above 20.
Last time this happened, we saw the start of the bullmarket, which happened in late 2015.
So this should have accordingly happened in late 2019.
But apparently this time we're 6 months too early. Why, what's going on?
Well, I have some theories.
1. More people know about the halving in mid 2020, and want to get in as early as possible => More early buying => Earlier bullmarket start
2. Stock indices are performing very strongly, and I see a positive correlation between BTC and stocks. If stocks make new ATHs, BTC will perform also strongly
3. Number of daily transactions soon at ATH: blockchain.com/de/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?timespan=all
Therefore adoption is continuing. Also some other positive news as potential ETF and lightning network etc.
Therefore, we might see the top of this bull cycle already in mid 2021, something like May-July 2021.
Interesting and surprising, because I thought BTC would rather slow down.
But one has to instantly adapt if BTC changes its behavior.
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