Long Term Bitcoin analysis
Bitcoin seems to be in a large range. The fibonnaci levels are a bit unusual, going only from half to half, but the price levels seems to be respected.
Horizontal Range explanation
1. With yellow we have the main levels which mark the top and the bottom of the range
2. With White we have the levels in between for more confluence.
3. With red we have the levels to where we had the deviations from both range high and range low and also the middle of the range.
Vertical dates
1. With yellow we have the previous halving and the next aproximate halving date.
2. With red we have the first top, measured from the halving and the second top, measured from the first top.
3. With green we have the date when was the optimal time to switch to altcoins, after that aprox. 84 days of altcoin season occured.
Past overview/Future expectations
1. The current rally can go to test the middle of the range and after that if it retraces to the bottom of the range, that is where the entry zone for bitcoin is for the next bullmarket.
2. It can be observed, circled in blue, how much time Bitcoin has lasted in the upper range (from 0.5 to 1). We have aprox. 490 days from the time that it has entered until the breakdown to the lower range happend.
3. A similar movement is expected to play out with a similar date range. After the middle range is broken to the upside, we can expect a reaccumulation phase going into the halving.
4. After the halving, the bullmarket begins and we look for the 1.5 extension as the exit from BTC (In confluence to a high RSI, somwhere in the 90 value) into the altcoin market. 84 days are, again, at least expected for the altcoins to give better returns than Bitcoin as the cycle comes to an end.
5. The second top is an option that cannot be excluded here, but we will need to see how the market behave after the first top.
Horizontal Range explanation
1. With yellow we have the main levels which mark the top and the bottom of the range
2. With White we have the levels in between for more confluence.
3. With red we have the levels to where we had the deviations from both range high and range low and also the middle of the range.
Vertical dates
1. With yellow we have the previous halving and the next aproximate halving date.
2. With red we have the first top, measured from the halving and the second top, measured from the first top.
3. With green we have the date when was the optimal time to switch to altcoins, after that aprox. 84 days of altcoin season occured.
Past overview/Future expectations
1. The current rally can go to test the middle of the range and after that if it retraces to the bottom of the range, that is where the entry zone for bitcoin is for the next bullmarket.
2. It can be observed, circled in blue, how much time Bitcoin has lasted in the upper range (from 0.5 to 1). We have aprox. 490 days from the time that it has entered until the breakdown to the lower range happend.
3. A similar movement is expected to play out with a similar date range. After the middle range is broken to the upside, we can expect a reaccumulation phase going into the halving.
4. After the halving, the bullmarket begins and we look for the 1.5 extension as the exit from BTC (In confluence to a high RSI, somwhere in the 90 value) into the altcoin market. 84 days are, again, at least expected for the altcoins to give better returns than Bitcoin as the cycle comes to an end.
5. The second top is an option that cannot be excluded here, but we will need to see how the market behave after the first top.
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