What's next for BNB
Updated
BNB is my favourite coin to trade. High volatility and big movements occur frequently, and it's also one of the first alts to return to pre November-2018 levels. In my opinion BNB, LTC, and BCH have been the main alts leading the currency recovery, and ETH is also worth watching recently.
Here we have several views of BNB. Along the bottom is the entire history of BNB since its launch in Nov 2017. The most important feature here is the historical support/resistance level (in orange), at $17.45. You can't see on this scale but this level was important during volatility during Jan 2018 also.
At top left, the daily chart shows us a support level at $16.45 which was notable during late March (dotted red line).
The top right chart shows us the break down from a triangle pattern that brings us to today. Around April 8 price paused near the 0.618 fib retracement, before continuing down to current levels around 0.236.
All of this points to two possible paths from here:
Less likely scenario (red arrow):
The red arrow is the expected move down from the triangle pattern, based on the height at the start of the triangle. It coincides nicely with the dotted red support at $16.45.
Now a few months ago I would have said this was the most likely path, as BNB's high volatility often leads to moves down of several dollars after a big push up.
Most likely scenario (orange arrows):
However, given the general bullish nature of crypto lately, along with the fact that the 200 MA is now trending up on the daily chart, makes me think that the a target of $18.65 is most likely. I'd love to see a drop to $17.45 first to see that important support tested (orange line), as it would be a great entry point to go long with a tight stop-loss below it.
The target of $18.65 is at the 0.618 fib retrace, and you can see it's acted as support several times during already during April, so I expect it will now be tested at resistance. Price blasting above this level without pausing would be very bullish.
Entry: on bounce from $17.45
Stop-loss: $17.30
Target: $18.65
One thing to beware of: BNB price can drop suddenly if BTC pumps again, as traders try and trade their BNB for BTC to take advantage of the move.
Here we have several views of BNB. Along the bottom is the entire history of BNB since its launch in Nov 2017. The most important feature here is the historical support/resistance level (in orange), at $17.45. You can't see on this scale but this level was important during volatility during Jan 2018 also.
At top left, the daily chart shows us a support level at $16.45 which was notable during late March (dotted red line).
The top right chart shows us the break down from a triangle pattern that brings us to today. Around April 8 price paused near the 0.618 fib retracement, before continuing down to current levels around 0.236.
All of this points to two possible paths from here:
Less likely scenario (red arrow):
The red arrow is the expected move down from the triangle pattern, based on the height at the start of the triangle. It coincides nicely with the dotted red support at $16.45.
Now a few months ago I would have said this was the most likely path, as BNB's high volatility often leads to moves down of several dollars after a big push up.
Most likely scenario (orange arrows):
However, given the general bullish nature of crypto lately, along with the fact that the 200 MA is now trending up on the daily chart, makes me think that the a target of $18.65 is most likely. I'd love to see a drop to $17.45 first to see that important support tested (orange line), as it would be a great entry point to go long with a tight stop-loss below it.
The target of $18.65 is at the 0.618 fib retrace, and you can see it's acted as support several times during already during April, so I expect it will now be tested at resistance. Price blasting above this level without pausing would be very bullish.
Entry: on bounce from $17.45
Stop-loss: $17.30
Target: $18.65
One thing to beware of: BNB price can drop suddenly if BTC pumps again, as traders try and trade their BNB for BTC to take advantage of the move.
Trade active
Very strong bounce around $17.52 with a tail as far as $17.01. I think price will generally continue up from here although there may be a brief drop as low as $17.66 in the next few hours.Trade closed manually
Price ended up being about $0.04 short of the target of $18.65 before dropping. I have set a stop-loss on my remaining position at $17.12, as I believe the orange line at $17.45 is likely to act as resistance, forcing price down further.That said, if BNB is able to break back through the orange line I will increase the stop to at least $17.23. One thing acting for BNB bulls at the moment is that if more traders choose to exit BTC positions this can be helpful for pushing BNB price up.
Not a good time to enter any new positions until we get a clear picture of where BNB is headed.
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