Schizophrenic BTCUSD
Updated
I feel a little schizophrenic at the moment. One minute I'm calling that a revisit to 6k is less likely, the next minute sentiment has changed and it's back on the cards. This is not surprising. We are in an area of balance, trading between 8k and 9k. A break below 7.7k will signal the bears are still in control and a break above 9.5k will signal that the bears are waking. I not looking to guess and instead position myself where the market might take this whilst managing risk through sizing and stop losses. It's a difficult balance to get right as one can quickly end up with portfolio erosion.
Yesterday we identified a potential opportunity to go long on a H&S neckline break. That break didn't hold so I didn't trade.
Today we are now heading South. Unfortunately I was engaged and missed the rejection of the neckline and then the breaking of the 1HR 50EMA. That would have been a great opportunity to enter a short. To enter a short, in the next 1-4 hours, I'm looking for a retrace back to and rejection of the 1HR 50EMA (which would also go through the 4HR 50EMA). This might not materialise and could be quite a short trade which is closed out at a reversal at one of the long areas:
- the cross over of the long term diangonal resistance turned support (dotted blue)
- the upward green diagonal support at around $8150
- or both of the above if they align
- the accumulation zone at 7800 which is just above the 0.5 Fib
Yesterday we identified a potential opportunity to go long on a H&S neckline break. That break didn't hold so I didn't trade.
Today we are now heading South. Unfortunately I was engaged and missed the rejection of the neckline and then the breaking of the 1HR 50EMA. That would have been a great opportunity to enter a short. To enter a short, in the next 1-4 hours, I'm looking for a retrace back to and rejection of the 1HR 50EMA (which would also go through the 4HR 50EMA). This might not materialise and could be quite a short trade which is closed out at a reversal at one of the long areas:
- the cross over of the long term diangonal resistance turned support (dotted blue)
- the upward green diagonal support at around $8150
- or both of the above if they align
- the accumulation zone at 7800 which is just above the 0.5 Fib
Note
BTC retraced to the 1HR 50EMA but is not rejecting it at this point. No trade at the moment. Note
It has created a new higher diagonal resistance line providing a worse risk reward on the short.
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