BitcoinShort
BTC 15 000 or 12 000
Updated
The 4h chart and the 1d chart of BTC (RSI, Coppock, OBV, DMI, TSI and Aroon, MACD) show somewhat different outcome for BTC:
- based on the 4h it is possible that 15k was/is the bottom for BTC and DI+ times are coming,
- however based on the 1d, there is strong chance for further down to 12k or a long consolidation period.
The charts shows the 12k scenario: Coppock goes close to zeroish, RSI goes down to 30, MA42 stops the downtrend. (Yet, if I take the weekly DMI than there is ~20% chance that BTC might break that line and may go down further...)
Since BTC has had a superlong and superstrong DI+ period for a month, I would say 12k is likely, yet the superincreased OBV and hype might stop it at 15k now....I have no idea.
But, there is bigger concern for me: I have problem understanding that since Dec, BTC-LTC-ETH 1w correlation is 0,9, which is hyper-high, from this perspective these coins are "one", which is super-unhealthy, I think. Why are they so super-correlated? Will it remain that way? Ideas? Why people panicking about LTC/ETH when BTC falls? (The conversion only shall not explain this 0.9, there are not interconnected system in real life, but in the exchange they are. Why?)
- based on the 4h it is possible that 15k was/is the bottom for BTC and DI+ times are coming,
- however based on the 1d, there is strong chance for further down to 12k or a long consolidation period.
The charts shows the 12k scenario: Coppock goes close to zeroish, RSI goes down to 30, MA42 stops the downtrend. (Yet, if I take the weekly DMI than there is ~20% chance that BTC might break that line and may go down further...)
Since BTC has had a superlong and superstrong DI+ period for a month, I would say 12k is likely, yet the superincreased OBV and hype might stop it at 15k now....I have no idea.
But, there is bigger concern for me: I have problem understanding that since Dec, BTC-LTC-ETH 1w correlation is 0,9, which is hyper-high, from this perspective these coins are "one", which is super-unhealthy, I think. Why are they so super-correlated? Will it remain that way? Ideas? Why people panicking about LTC/ETH when BTC falls? (The conversion only shall not explain this 0.9, there are not interconnected system in real life, but in the exchange they are. Why?)
Trade active
The drop to 12,5k was way faster than I predicted, making RSI 4h lowest, which means we might hit the bottom.Trade active
I got in early, 5mins RSI seemed stronger than I thought, 5mins RSI changing now. (RSI and its EMA).Trade active
I sold current high, minimizing my losses, because in my interpretation of Coppock(w,d,h), RSI-RSIEMA, tells that, here is still more going down the rabbit hole... I might be wrong. Again this is not a trading advice. Calculate risk, predict, analyze and have fun!Trade active
Based on 1w RSI-OBV-Coppock, I believe that there is further downside likely to come. Which I said previously as 4% is now 52%.This was/is NOT a trading advice from me. Always use stops, try to avoid FOMO, calculate risks and happy holidays!
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