BTCUSD - Possible Short Term Increase to $13,202
Updated
I am continuing my practice, so this shouldn't be advice that is actionable and is more of a thought exercise.
This time around, I'm focusing on BTC pricing as I have roughly half of my holdings in BTC at the moment.
Being a newbie, I did not have any idea about the need for liquidity to help with buying the lows, so I am looking for an opportunity to sell 25% of my BTC holdings when I am in the positive.
I bought in mostly around $14,000 to $16,000 and did not know I should have sold closer to 18/19,000, so am currently at a loss, but that's ok since it's a lesson to me about crypto markets. It came at a cost, but is applicable inside and outside of crypto markets.
The early signs of a pennant began soon after I started working on this chart and have progressed thus far in a way that fits into my initial belief.
My understanding with bull pennants is that they are a variation on flags, but have a triangular shape rather than a rectangle pattern and generally continue upwards if completed properly.
The caluclation for measuring the next potential increase in to take the difference of the poll from the top and bottom of the pennant.
Top of pole/pennant: $12,688
Bottom of pennant: $12,219
Bottom of pole: $11,628
Difference of bottom of pennant and bottom of pole:
$12,219
-$11,628
----------
$591
Top of flag/pennant: $12,688
+pool Difference: $591
-----------------------------
$13,279
This is a bit above CoinTelegraph's prediction of $13,202 based on a head and shoulders pattern.
( cointelegraph.com/news/price-analysis-jan-19-bitcoin-ethereum-bitcoin-cash-ripple-iota-litecoin-nem-cardano )
TA NOTES:
SUPPORT/RESISTANCE:
-Red lines are resistance lines that are target breakthroughs for movement to a higher sustained level.
-Orange lines indicate suport/resistance lines. If bottom orange line is broken, the the pennant may be in danger.
-The lower blue line indicates the breaking into a downwards pattern the may post a higher higher, but it will be below $13,000.
BOLLINGER BAND:
-Band indicates that value is there, but mid line is about to have a cross in it that can indicate a downturn.
RSI:
RSI indicates fairly oversold, but with a movement downwards.
STOCHRSI:
StochRSI indicates possibly slightly oversold, but there is movement into the 0 line, meaning it is neutral.
This time around, I'm focusing on BTC pricing as I have roughly half of my holdings in BTC at the moment.
Being a newbie, I did not have any idea about the need for liquidity to help with buying the lows, so I am looking for an opportunity to sell 25% of my BTC holdings when I am in the positive.
I bought in mostly around $14,000 to $16,000 and did not know I should have sold closer to 18/19,000, so am currently at a loss, but that's ok since it's a lesson to me about crypto markets. It came at a cost, but is applicable inside and outside of crypto markets.
The early signs of a pennant began soon after I started working on this chart and have progressed thus far in a way that fits into my initial belief.
My understanding with bull pennants is that they are a variation on flags, but have a triangular shape rather than a rectangle pattern and generally continue upwards if completed properly.
The caluclation for measuring the next potential increase in to take the difference of the poll from the top and bottom of the pennant.
Top of pole/pennant: $12,688
Bottom of pennant: $12,219
Bottom of pole: $11,628
Difference of bottom of pennant and bottom of pole:
$12,219
-$11,628
----------
$591
Top of flag/pennant: $12,688
+pool Difference: $591
-----------------------------
$13,279
This is a bit above CoinTelegraph's prediction of $13,202 based on a head and shoulders pattern.
( cointelegraph.com/news/price-analysis-jan-19-bitcoin-ethereum-bitcoin-cash-ripple-iota-litecoin-nem-cardano )
TA NOTES:
SUPPORT/RESISTANCE:
-Red lines are resistance lines that are target breakthroughs for movement to a higher sustained level.
-Orange lines indicate suport/resistance lines. If bottom orange line is broken, the the pennant may be in danger.
-The lower blue line indicates the breaking into a downwards pattern the may post a higher higher, but it will be below $13,000.
BOLLINGER BAND:
-Band indicates that value is there, but mid line is about to have a cross in it that can indicate a downturn.
RSI:
RSI indicates fairly oversold, but with a movement downwards.
STOCHRSI:
StochRSI indicates possibly slightly oversold, but there is movement into the 0 line, meaning it is neutral.
Note
I realized I I forgot to add a potential line of resistance at $12,689 given the previous high of the pennant and pole hitting approximately that high, thus making it, I believe, a "test high"(?).Note
Several hours after matching near the top of the pennant at $12,692, there was a pushback to $12,250, thus falling below the upper blue line.The bulls managed to rally back and push the price back to $12,769 where it is facing resistance, but is supported at the $12,761.
I'll be heading into work soon to make pizza, but will be checking the price to see if there is a weekend selloff effect I have heard (but without confirmation) occurs at least in South Korea on a regular basis.
TA Notes:
4 hours:
RSI: At 58, heading flat.
StochRSI: At 99,/96. Blue line is heading up slightly, singal line is flat.
BB: Range is 12928 to 10453, with midline on at 11,690 and is around 38 on RSI chart, heading up.
Reading as: Potential very short term sell, but likely uptrend.
1 hour:
RSI: 62, slightly downturn.
StochRSI: 32, 45 with a 45 degree downturn. Both lines are parallel.
BB: Range is 13153 to 11860, with midline on at 12,507 and is around 60 on RSI chart, heading up. Close to meeting with RSI line.
Reading as: Possible very short term sell, but likely continuation of establishing new floor.
15 minutes:
RSI: 53, flat.
StochRSI: 38, 39 with signal crossing blue line. Blue line is downwards, orange is upwards, forming a < symbol.
BB: Range is 12,966 to 12,657 , with midline on at 12,657 and is around 58 on RSI chart, heading up gently. Above RSI line.
Reading as: Consolidation around 12,765.
Note
It looks like the market came to a pricing agreement around 12,765 and has dropped a good bit.The price has gone through the upper blue line a second time and this time, deeper at $12,190 and has built some level of support (by 15 minute increments).
Note
Price has dropped passed the second lower blue line.RSI at 22 indicates extremely oversold.
Bands indicate a continuation of of selling.
Volume is predominately selling.
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