BTC: At a crossroads?

Apr 3, 2021

It wouldn't matter but for the clear fact that when BTC drops it pulls 90% of the crypto market with it. It makes swing trading anything almost impossible.

Is BTC still ascending, or did it break down? I'm in two minds as to how to view this from a chart perspective, even at the most basic level of drawing channels. Mixed signals in many other respects.

If BTC is revisiting 55k, what would this mean for alt season?

And will 55k hold, or are we going to be retesting 50k, or even lower?

What I see at the broadest level is BTC running out of steam. I know on the macro that the picture is still bullish, and the upside targets are still in view. But BTC still has to get there.

Let me know your thoughts in comments.

Apr 3, 2021

Note

The thing that disturbs me the most is the dependence of alt coins on BTC. What can actually explain this, in plain reality not metaphor? Money is now flowing out of these coins. When BTC's price drops, their prices drop immediately. There and then. How is this? What is the practical relation that ties price action in one alt to BTC specifically? Is it related to market cap, in a way that when real market cap value drops, price drops? Is someone selling, or not? Suddenly too many sellers? What is actually going on? Stop losses getting triggered? Is this alone enough to explain the exact mechanism? Why do some coins drop 10%, 15%, when BTC drops 5%? It's tremendously problematic and unhealthy for the cryptospace as a whole.

Apr 5, 2021

Note

05 Apr 2021 17:06:05: The present break above 58.6 invalidates, I think, the way the channels were drawn on the chart above. I think this scenario would suggest that all BTC did was bounce off the midline of the channel it remains in. It's often hard to assess the strength of BTC. We see bearish divergence still on the weekly RSI. But what a monster this thing is. It ploughs on. Reminds to give precedence to higher timeframes.