Here's my take on our progress so far in Bitcoin.

Feb 7, 2020

I'd like to talk a little about how I see it in terms of where we are and what we could expect to happen in the near future.

I am going to say that I probably should have seen earlier but I needed all this time to let things sink in and achieve a certain level of what I believe to be some clarity. Earlier this week I was hoping to get a chance to rebuy in the area of 8600-8900 after exiting my swing trade that I started at the 6400 bottom that I was waiting for since July(check my July first chart).

I was wrong to close it before 11k and as the market showed me, a good opportunity to get back on the horse has not, at least so far, presented itself, the 9000 level being fiercely defended. I used this time and the profits to buy all the alts that fitted my understanding of a good entry point and they have since paid off very well, I don't even plan on trading them until things really start going crazy. I have a couple of bags bought around what I consider a solid bottom of the bear cycle and I plan to hold on to them for however long it will take.

Getting back to bitcoin, violating the bearish trend from last summer's top and then bouncing off of that violated line, whether you draw it on the wicks or the bodies of the candles or whether you want to see it on a log or regular scale, it doesn't really matter they will all point us to an area around 8300(see the circled area on the chart).

Therefore my theory is that just as 6400 was the new bottom that needed to be defended to confirm our bullish cycle, holding 8300 will further confirm the cycle is intact and we're good to go. Short term, I think the rally will lose steam in the 11-12k area and then it will come to test this 8300 area. It is there that i have my bids set and spread around and I don't want to get into any targets or anything for the upswing, I'm just going to patiently wait to see what happens in this new range. I'm in great spirits and the fact that alts are beginning to move together with bitcoin rather than in an inverse correlation for the first time in a couple of years is further fueling my confidence in the Crypto market for the time being.

In conclusion I'd like to touch up on the upcoming halving event. Our last one(2016) gave us a period of about 4 months of horrible price action. There was a painfully slow crawl upwards in an even more painfully tight range. However those months and that range were unable to produce a lower low, leaving the trend intact and leading us into 2017. I don't know if it's going to work out the same way the same as I don't know if it's going to all come to us this year or next year but I do believe that our next parabolic movement is coming and we're in the early stages of it, setting up to what will probably be the most violent movement that bitcoin has ever had with targets that even in the worst case scenario will put us from above 30k and all the way into 6 digits. I'll do my best to keep things updated more or less on time frames that follow possible swing trades which is what I've been most consistently successful at in the past years.