My view on BTC for the upcoming weeks/months
Hi everyone, I know it's been a while since I last shared an idea here but I decided to start doing this again to track my progress and of course to help those of you who are seeking ideas on what's to come for the crypto market for t6he rest of the year.
Now, if we take a closer look on the daily or weekly chart of BTC we can see that an Elliot Wave pattern has formed, except for wave 5 which is still in development. On the chart we can see that Wave 4 lasted 147 days, longer then Wave 2 which lasted only 63 days (almost 2.5x longer). I've seen a lot of people saying that the $74.000 level (Wave 3) is the absolute top for this cycle and that now we are going into the bear market, but for me this only looks like a Wyckoff Reaccumulation with some deviations, because the charts don't always have respect different patterns, so given that we stayed in a Zig-Zag formation for this long I don't think that we are in a distribution zone. Yes, the price can drop a bit towards the $54.000 to $56.000 zone but it has to do it fast, just like when it dropped bellow $50.000.
On the chart I marked 3 price targets for the upcoming months:
->the zone between $83.000 and $89.000 I think is very doable since there are 3 key levels in that zone, 2 from the Fib Extension from Wave 1 and 1 level from the Fib Extension from Wave 4, which is represented by the 1.618 mark which is very strong and meaningful when we talk about Elliot Waves;
->the $104.00000 zone is also represented by the 1.618 Fib Extension on Wave 3, and I think this price is also achievable if we have enough time.
(Time in the market is more important than timing the market)
You have probably seen some talk about the Fed rate cuts in September and how they affect the market. I personally think that the first 2 or 3 rate cuts will be bullish since a lot of people are expecting them to be bearish. I would recommend everyone to keep your eyes on the BONDS because from what I've studied when the US10Y-US02Y gets above that means people are more relaxed to invest and block their money and they are not expecting any big crashes.
I know this is a pretty big idea but I hope it will give you a new perspective on how to analyze BTC's cycles.
I will be updating this idea weekly until the new year so make sure to follow in order to get notified.
Now, if we take a closer look on the daily or weekly chart of BTC we can see that an Elliot Wave pattern has formed, except for wave 5 which is still in development. On the chart we can see that Wave 4 lasted 147 days, longer then Wave 2 which lasted only 63 days (almost 2.5x longer). I've seen a lot of people saying that the $74.000 level (Wave 3) is the absolute top for this cycle and that now we are going into the bear market, but for me this only looks like a Wyckoff Reaccumulation with some deviations, because the charts don't always have respect different patterns, so given that we stayed in a Zig-Zag formation for this long I don't think that we are in a distribution zone. Yes, the price can drop a bit towards the $54.000 to $56.000 zone but it has to do it fast, just like when it dropped bellow $50.000.
On the chart I marked 3 price targets for the upcoming months:
->the zone between $83.000 and $89.000 I think is very doable since there are 3 key levels in that zone, 2 from the Fib Extension from Wave 1 and 1 level from the Fib Extension from Wave 4, which is represented by the 1.618 mark which is very strong and meaningful when we talk about Elliot Waves;
->the $104.00000 zone is also represented by the 1.618 Fib Extension on Wave 3, and I think this price is also achievable if we have enough time.
(Time in the market is more important than timing the market)
You have probably seen some talk about the Fed rate cuts in September and how they affect the market. I personally think that the first 2 or 3 rate cuts will be bullish since a lot of people are expecting them to be bearish. I would recommend everyone to keep your eyes on the BONDS because from what I've studied when the US10Y-US02Y gets above that means people are more relaxed to invest and block their money and they are not expecting any big crashes.
I know this is a pretty big idea but I hope it will give you a new perspective on how to analyze BTC's cycles.
I will be updating this idea weekly until the new year so make sure to follow in order to get notified.
Note
Looks like wave C got a bit lower then the price target I was expecting. But hey, now with the rate cuts we have 2 months to watch the DXY crash while BTC will be gaining attention.
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