Catching the wing

May 25, 2020

Morning everybody,

We continue our journey with potential upside butterfly pattern on 4H chart and trying to catch the starting point of the right wing.

On Friday we've called to buy around 9K area, once XOP has been completed, promising bounce at least to 9.2K. Market is done to 9.3K but then has dropped again back to the same 5/8 Fib support.

There are some moments exist that worry us a bit, for example dropping of the hash rate, but technically - it is too early to cancel bullish scenario. Overall downside action is slow, market even has not reached major daily 3/8 Fib support around 7.8K, so, retracement is really very small. Thus, we are not ready yet totally deny upside scenario.

It means that we continue to do the same - estimate acceptable points where it is relatively safe to go long until price stands above 8K area.

On 1H chart we have butterfly in progress and coming MACD divergence. Potentially this is bullish pattern, but the one thing that I do not like is acceleration to the butterfly target. It means that is more probable that price will drop to 1.618 butterfly target around 8.5K. This is next level to consider long entry. Entry technique is the same - once position is opened, move stops to breakeven as soon as possible. Minimal upside reaction again should be 150-200$. Then we will see what will happen.