Bitcoin: Impulse Break Now What?

Bitcoin price has violated the wave i overlap that I have been writing about in previous weeks. This means the lower magnitude impulse structure is no longer valid and reduces the probability of a wave v higher in the near term (which is why I removed the labels from my chart). Based on this price action, I am anticipating the continuation of the complex consolidation that this market has been in since the peak in March. Since the long term trend is still bullish, it is a good idea to watch RANGE LOWS for bullish reversal opportunities in the coming weeks.

The current momentum continues to be bearish. I wrote specifically about inside bars appearing the week before, and there are another two present as I write this (see arrow). These are momentum continuation patterns which means at least over the next couple of days prices are likely to test the 62K to 60K support zone (see illustration on chart).

While situations like this may be uneventful for investors and larger time frame traders, there are ample opportunities on intraday time frames. My trade scanner alone has been excelling in this environment because of the reversal signals off of the supports. Having such a system or well defined strategy in place not only offers a clear suggestion on when to get in, but more importantly when to EXIT the market in this highly RANDOM environment.

IF 60K is broken this week, it will increase the probability of a test of the consolidation low which is 56K. These are the kind of scenarios to consider when looking to increase your investment exposure. Again there is NO WAY to know if the market will choose this. This game has NOTHING to do with forecasting the future. It is about BEING PREPARED for a RANGE of possibilities that the market may present. While at the same time ALWAYS accounting for the associated RISK.

Opinions often ruin accounts. It is better to evaluate then let the market validate, otherwise you REEVALUATE. This thought process is much more effective in a market environment for one simple reason: markets are MOSTLY RANDOM. I repeat this a lot and while the words are easy to understand, applying this concept to your decision making framework it not. Emotions, fear of missing out and other herd behaviors are what make you susceptible to the irrelevant opinions of others. The BEST source of market information is THE MARKET.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.