BitcoinLong
Careful shorting Bitcoin!!!
Updated
Most still saying we're going lower. I say higher. I believe we're forming a rounded bottom to complete an Adam & Eve double bottom (Pink V and U). What I keep hearing is that the chart for BTC shows no indication of bullish reversal, which is true. Some traders wait for a broader trend reversal indication before hopping in to ride the waves, which can take some time. That's a smart way to trade. On the other hand, while we have no official confirmation of a bullish reversal, there are bullish signs beginning to form that I am paying close attention to.
If you look at the linear chart you will see that we have broken out of the month long linear resistance and successfully retested. I can't post both the linear and log scale charts, so you'll have to look at it for yourself. Just draw a line from the 11,600 peak on March 5 and connect it going down to the March 24 and April 3 peaks. The linear resistance was broken on April 7 and we got a successful retest and bounce off on April 9.
The bears are still shorting and believe the bullish reversal will come in the form of another sharp dip like the one we had in early February, followed by a massive spike in volume when the sharp decline hits a certain price level (consensus seems to be 4800). The way the price has been behaving lately, it does not seem likely that we will get the velocity or volume of selling that bears are looking for. The extreme selling volume and regular sharp declines that we've seen for the past 5 months, I believe, have died out. We've been moving in a narrow range of 6500 and 7200 for the past 2 weeks (just as I said would happen) and have had 4 touches at the 6600 level. This change in behavior, combined with the amount of selling pressure the last 5 months, indicates to me that the well has dried up for us to go down further.
People think there has to be a "bounce" somewhere to reverse. Well, what would fool the masses more than a slow, steady uptrend, with the bears holding on for dear life to their shorts because of no "spike in volume" or "sharp dip"? And even if we do make a big move up, the bears will believe that every jump is a bull trap. The contrarian will fool the masses.
The descending wedge, indicated by the blue lines, is approaching it's 1 month old birthday and BTC is currently retesting the resistance and looking to breakout. Hear me now: WE WILL BREAK TO THE UPSIDE out of this wedge! We will not retest the bottom of this wedge again. We won't be in the wedge longer than its resistance cross with the 6 month log support green line, which crosses on April 15, and we will not go lower than that log support. Once BTC breaks out of the wedge, we'll be headed to test the 8K level. A consolidation and break of that level would take us straight to 9K where we would encounter a a huge test of the 4 month long log resistance. If we break out of that, I expect the start of a new bull cycle. BTC has a lot of ground to make up from the heavy beating it took and will need to recover slowly while it encounters many obstacles along the way.
But make no mistake! The Dark Horse has been training harder than ever this off-season. He has been weak. It has been one of his most grueling training season. The Dark Horse has been running wind sprints and marathons in the dark while the rest were sleeping. Everyone has written him off. But he will rise from the ashes and put on his best performance yet!
Here are the potential bullish factors I am keeping an eye on that may help shift sentiment in the crypto market:
1) Tim Draper Bitcoin price prediction April 12
2) Tom Lee Misery Index still at extreme lows
3) Tax day April 17
4) Sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish, everyone calling BTC dead or 3-4K and shorts at ATH
5) Alts seem to have found bottoms. Trading in narrow range or breaking out of their downtrends. Bittrex new user registration!
6) Adam & Eve pattern & my Gold comparison
Thanks for reading and please give me a like and a follow!
If you look at the linear chart you will see that we have broken out of the month long linear resistance and successfully retested. I can't post both the linear and log scale charts, so you'll have to look at it for yourself. Just draw a line from the 11,600 peak on March 5 and connect it going down to the March 24 and April 3 peaks. The linear resistance was broken on April 7 and we got a successful retest and bounce off on April 9.
The bears are still shorting and believe the bullish reversal will come in the form of another sharp dip like the one we had in early February, followed by a massive spike in volume when the sharp decline hits a certain price level (consensus seems to be 4800). The way the price has been behaving lately, it does not seem likely that we will get the velocity or volume of selling that bears are looking for. The extreme selling volume and regular sharp declines that we've seen for the past 5 months, I believe, have died out. We've been moving in a narrow range of 6500 and 7200 for the past 2 weeks (just as I said would happen) and have had 4 touches at the 6600 level. This change in behavior, combined with the amount of selling pressure the last 5 months, indicates to me that the well has dried up for us to go down further.
People think there has to be a "bounce" somewhere to reverse. Well, what would fool the masses more than a slow, steady uptrend, with the bears holding on for dear life to their shorts because of no "spike in volume" or "sharp dip"? And even if we do make a big move up, the bears will believe that every jump is a bull trap. The contrarian will fool the masses.
The descending wedge, indicated by the blue lines, is approaching it's 1 month old birthday and BTC is currently retesting the resistance and looking to breakout. Hear me now: WE WILL BREAK TO THE UPSIDE out of this wedge! We will not retest the bottom of this wedge again. We won't be in the wedge longer than its resistance cross with the 6 month log support green line, which crosses on April 15, and we will not go lower than that log support. Once BTC breaks out of the wedge, we'll be headed to test the 8K level. A consolidation and break of that level would take us straight to 9K where we would encounter a a huge test of the 4 month long log resistance. If we break out of that, I expect the start of a new bull cycle. BTC has a lot of ground to make up from the heavy beating it took and will need to recover slowly while it encounters many obstacles along the way.
But make no mistake! The Dark Horse has been training harder than ever this off-season. He has been weak. It has been one of his most grueling training season. The Dark Horse has been running wind sprints and marathons in the dark while the rest were sleeping. Everyone has written him off. But he will rise from the ashes and put on his best performance yet!
Here are the potential bullish factors I am keeping an eye on that may help shift sentiment in the crypto market:
1) Tim Draper Bitcoin price prediction April 12
2) Tom Lee Misery Index still at extreme lows
3) Tax day April 17
4) Sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish, everyone calling BTC dead or 3-4K and shorts at ATH
5) Alts seem to have found bottoms. Trading in narrow range or breaking out of their downtrends. Bittrex new user registration!
6) Adam & Eve pattern & my Gold comparison
Thanks for reading and please give me a like and a follow!
Note
ANNDDDDD BOOM!!! Tested and got rejected by the 8K level. We destroyed the top of that wedge. What a candle! Bulls with a full head of steam out of the gate.I want you guys to look at my gray line at 8071.91. Now look where BTC got rejected at 8069.34. 8071.91 - 8069.34 = 2.57
Give me a like if you think I was right... oh wait that's not subjective :)
The Dark Horse against all odds.
Note
OK traders, that was a HUGE move up--one of the biggest green hourly volumes in the history of BTC, which is of course bullish!I think BTC will continue to be solid at the levels, despite the extreme overbought conditions (RSI was at nearly 90 on the hourly for that fat green candle).
That is because I still expect BTC to continue a similar trajectory for that of Gold (see my previous idea here):
This means that we will likely see consolidation in the 7700-8200 range for the next couple of weeks before making a broader move towards the 4 month log resistance (red line) around the 21st of April.
I am not ruling out the possibility of another fat green candle and test of log resistance sooner at just below the 9K level, as BTC can often do the unexpected, but that was a massive move up in a very short amount of time and I expect BTC to consolidate here for a fair amount of time before making another bullish move.
I'll put together a more detailed analysis and new chart in the coming days, but for now let's process that last move and be patient as we look for the next set of signals.
My favorite quote of the day:
"Most likely there was a change in sentiment today and traders started to buy thus raising the price."
Most likely the dog was hungry and the dog ate thus curbing its appetite.
Note
FYI, I've been trying to post a new idea for a different coin but Trading View has a bug of some sort and won't let me post at the moment. I will be posting both the new coin and a new Bitcoin chart in the morning.Note
I sincerely apologize to you guys. I promised you a chart this morning, as I thought Trading View would have resolved the issue by now. But that is not the case. Their support team is getting major demerits right now from me. I've been waiting on 7 hours now for resolution and pay $600 for a premium membership that is supposed to tend to your support ticket within an hour! I will be sure that they make this right, as I have my word to keep to you guys and a community counting on me. It's totally unacceptable for them not to have a response back to me by now on a site where your users' reputation relies on posting quality material in a timely manner. I apologize, once again. I have two juicy charts for you guys already done and ready to post, so as soon as the gate is opened again, the Dark Horse has some new spicy material for you already complete.
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