BITCOIN The minimum target of this Cycle is $185k

13 hours ago

If you follow us for long, you know that we are very fond of using Fibonacci levels on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Cycles in order to project future tops and bottoms. Today is one of those analyses, in fact it is a strong variation of the following Inverse Head and Shoulders call:

As you can see, that was based on the condition that BTC would make a first hit and rejection on the 0.786 Fib retracement and then (as it happened on the previous Cycle) would go for a Cycle Top on the 2.0 Fibonacci, which gives us a 165k Target.

Since the 0.786 Fib never really offered the rejection of the previous 3 Cycles, we are introducing a variation model with new parameters.

We take the Fib extension from the bottom of each Cycle to the moment it made contact with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). As you can see by applying these conditions, every Cycle since BTC's inception has hit at least the 5.0 Fibonacci extension, with all Cycles in fact making a perfect Top there with the exception of 2017, which even exceeded it.

As a result, we can claim that this Cycle will have a minimum peak at $185000.

How realistic do you think this is for the 'bad case scenario'? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!

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