BitcoinShort
Bitcoin in a Wyckoff Re-Distribution Phase
It’s been an interesting 24 hours or so with Bitcoin as the PA has been largely confined to a very tight trade range. Much as it can suck waiting for a definitive move, patience is the better part of valor in these scenarios to avoid getting chopped up.
Looking at the Intraday Chart, it appeared as though demand came back into the market and established an accumulation range between $9,140 and $9,300. Originally, I thought we might have entered a Wyckoff re-Accumulation phase. Yet the target price the formation was signaling ($10,000) seemed wrong, given the need to retest the lower end of the trade range ($8,120) before a potential Upward Thrust above $10,060 and the higher time frames were in the midst of a Wyckoff Distribution.
In the comments section of my original post yesterday on reddit/Bitcoinmarkets, I mentioned my target entry was $9,340 for this potential breakout. My rationale for this entry was to be certain I received a confirmation of the breakout before jumping in.
Let’s see how I came to change my position from Accumulation range to re-Distribution range.
The first drop to the $9,300 level established Preliminary Support (PS). The subsequent drop to $8,800 on a Selling Climax (SC) established the lower end of this trade range, and the Automatic Reaction (AR) pushed the price upward to $9,140, which established the initial upper end of the trade range during this re-accumulation phase. After performing a Secondary Test (ST), the price pushed past the initial upper boundary of the trade range (as expected in Wyckoff Accumulation) and established a new upper end of the trade range at $9,260. Much like the original market analysis, these initial conditions remain the same.
Shortly after, the formation pushed price past the newly established upper end of the trade range (at $9,260) to $9,300 before falling back to $9,140 and advancing again. Initially, I took this move as a Sign of Strength (SOS), yet after the subsequent retest the $9,300 high, the price behaved as resistance. This signaled a Wyckoff re-Distribution was underway on the Intraday, and the move to the $9,300 resistance level was an Upward Thrust (UT) on the re-distribution rather than a Sign of Strength (SOS).
I would expect the distribution to continue in a relatively short period and would target a price under $9,100 for entry into a short position. The target price on the re-distribution is $8,740.
Looking at the 1D chart, we can see the PA has flipped to a red candle which resonates with the re-distribution formation on the 4H Intraday.
The Wyckoff re-Distribution range reflected on the 4H Intraday, has congruence with my expectation the formation will re-test the lower end of the trade range ($8,120) before to eventually have a final Upward Thrust to the $10,300 level. The current scenario I see (given the recent PA) is in the near term is a move to the $8,740ish range.
Always remember this is not trading advice.
Outside of that, Happy Trading.
Looking at the Intraday Chart, it appeared as though demand came back into the market and established an accumulation range between $9,140 and $9,300. Originally, I thought we might have entered a Wyckoff re-Accumulation phase. Yet the target price the formation was signaling ($10,000) seemed wrong, given the need to retest the lower end of the trade range ($8,120) before a potential Upward Thrust above $10,060 and the higher time frames were in the midst of a Wyckoff Distribution.
In the comments section of my original post yesterday on reddit/Bitcoinmarkets, I mentioned my target entry was $9,340 for this potential breakout. My rationale for this entry was to be certain I received a confirmation of the breakout before jumping in.
Let’s see how I came to change my position from Accumulation range to re-Distribution range.
The first drop to the $9,300 level established Preliminary Support (PS). The subsequent drop to $8,800 on a Selling Climax (SC) established the lower end of this trade range, and the Automatic Reaction (AR) pushed the price upward to $9,140, which established the initial upper end of the trade range during this re-accumulation phase. After performing a Secondary Test (ST), the price pushed past the initial upper boundary of the trade range (as expected in Wyckoff Accumulation) and established a new upper end of the trade range at $9,260. Much like the original market analysis, these initial conditions remain the same.
Shortly after, the formation pushed price past the newly established upper end of the trade range (at $9,260) to $9,300 before falling back to $9,140 and advancing again. Initially, I took this move as a Sign of Strength (SOS), yet after the subsequent retest the $9,300 high, the price behaved as resistance. This signaled a Wyckoff re-Distribution was underway on the Intraday, and the move to the $9,300 resistance level was an Upward Thrust (UT) on the re-distribution rather than a Sign of Strength (SOS).
I would expect the distribution to continue in a relatively short period and would target a price under $9,100 for entry into a short position. The target price on the re-distribution is $8,740.
Looking at the 1D chart, we can see the PA has flipped to a red candle which resonates with the re-distribution formation on the 4H Intraday.
The Wyckoff re-Distribution range reflected on the 4H Intraday, has congruence with my expectation the formation will re-test the lower end of the trade range ($8,120) before to eventually have a final Upward Thrust to the $10,300 level. The current scenario I see (given the recent PA) is in the near term is a move to the $8,740ish range.
Always remember this is not trading advice.
Outside of that, Happy Trading.
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