BTC Daily chart 24th December 2023
Updated
Seasons greetings to all! Warmest wishes for you and your family during the holiday season.
In my last idea we saw that
BTCUSD was able to break the double bottom neckline at 43,5K but was unable to create any significant momentum to continue the rally towards 45K.
Since the holiday season has started, a period with lower volatility, i am not expecting BTC to go much higher till we get some more news about the BTC spot ETF.
If the ETF is approved we will probably see a significant rally which will take BTC to at least 50K. If BTC will be able to break 50K and go higher, will depend on how much the ETF approval was already priced in. If people already bought the news then the ETF rally could be more modest than expected (e.g. 50K high instead of new ATH).
If the ETF is rejected, then we will probably see a major price correction, dropping BTC under 40K support line with a possible bottom as low as 32K (the breaking of this resistance line was sort of the start of the current bullrun, so a retest is likely in a major correction).
As you might have read, the SEC recently had a meeting with all the ETF applicants. I am guessing that the applicant probably received a heads-up of the SEC's oncoming decision. If the SEC has already decided that it will reject the current applications, we will see signs of a sell-off from now till 10th of January (when the SEC will formaly announce the rejection).
So if BTC starts retracing, this could be a sign that the ETF applicants are selling off a part of their BTC ahead of the expected sell-off.
Other than that i am not expecting any mayor moves during the oncoming week.
In my last idea we saw that
BTCUSD was able to break the double bottom neckline at 43,5K but was unable to create any significant momentum to continue the rally towards 45K.Since the holiday season has started, a period with lower volatility, i am not expecting BTC to go much higher till we get some more news about the BTC spot ETF.
If the ETF is approved we will probably see a significant rally which will take BTC to at least 50K. If BTC will be able to break 50K and go higher, will depend on how much the ETF approval was already priced in. If people already bought the news then the ETF rally could be more modest than expected (e.g. 50K high instead of new ATH).
If the ETF is rejected, then we will probably see a major price correction, dropping BTC under 40K support line with a possible bottom as low as 32K (the breaking of this resistance line was sort of the start of the current bullrun, so a retest is likely in a major correction).
As you might have read, the SEC recently had a meeting with all the ETF applicants. I am guessing that the applicant probably received a heads-up of the SEC's oncoming decision. If the SEC has already decided that it will reject the current applications, we will see signs of a sell-off from now till 10th of January (when the SEC will formaly announce the rejection).
So if BTC starts retracing, this could be a sign that the ETF applicants are selling off a part of their BTC ahead of the expected sell-off.
Other than that i am not expecting any mayor moves during the oncoming week.
Note
BTC dropped back below the 43,5K neckline, the next level of support is around 41,5K where the upper channel trendline is situated (which acted as support on different occasions). If 41,5K fails, a stronger supportlevel is situated around 40K, which should hold for now.
The most recent dip follows news from the SEC saying that all applications have to by on point by 29th of December, which is a very short deadline considering the holiday season.
Could it be that the applicants have started to sell some of their BTC because they won't make the deadline?
My personal advice is to remain carefull and be sceptic about all the positive news saying that the BTC ETF is a sure thing, especcialy if they are being made by investors or ETF applicants.
Note
Best wishes to everybody!This morning it seemed that I was going to make a positive comment about BTC being able to break above 45K resistance line.
HOWEVER, just after the afternoon BTC had a flash crash of nearly 10%, which was reflected in the entire cryptospace with many altcoins having double digit losses.
My best bet for this sudden correction? A very large sell order from an institutional investor. This could be the signal that investors and banks know that the SEC wont approve the ETF this January and thus lowering their exposion to BTC.
We'll see what happens next. BTC could make a fast recovery but we'll see if 45K is still an attainable level. My bet would be that BTC has to find some support in order to stabilize the most recent priceaction. We could see a retest of 41,5K but i am expecting that BTC could drop as low as 40K before it can find any real support.
In about a week we will know more about the intentions of the SEC regarding the BTC ETF. If more bad news follows today's drop, we will probably lose the 40K support and see a retest of 32K.
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