Bitcoin and a simple NVT Strategy
Fundamentals
Despite some confusion bitcoin is both a decentralized payment system and the name of the currency of the network. In contrast, SWIFT is a centralized payment system that has the dollar as its currency.
Bitcoin's greatest value is when the currency is undervalued to the value of transactions it is running. That is when the system is the cheapest to use. It is the most expensive to use when the NTV is high. People with a lot of executive function will plan their purchases of things when they are cheap and sell them when they are expensive. We all wany to do it, some of us are better or worse at it.
Technical Analysis
This marvelous NVTwas created by aamonkey and it helps show when the price of bitcoin about fair value (yellow) or when it is overvalued (red abd above) and undervalued (Green). It is of course sensitive to time frame and I have used it to call for rallies from time to time with warnings that they could just be setting up local highs before going for local lows. The main chart points out the series of operations well enough that I don' think I should replicate it here. I have some other posts where I was watching some triangle or channel formations and if they held that would have signaled a lot more upside. But all that is trumped by the NVT going green on the weekly. History has shown the pattern that when the NVT goes into the green on the weekly it is a vicious bear market. As much as I want gains to the upside the formations broke down.
The chart below shows the triangle I was previously biased bullish on. No doubt it broke down. Price can impulse from here to the downside or it can rally and get back into the triangle or get rejected by previous support. The NVT suggest a bias to the bearish scenarios.
My Positioning
I have in large part left BTC alone because it was range bound and I have not seen an overriding signal to the upside or downside. I have mentioned in several post that I see several triangle formations that could be played very technically but I don't like to play triangles as they are the formations taht are the easiest to recognize but the worst at performance unless they are in a wider structure.
Having seen the NVT finally turn green on the weekly time frame leads me to conclude that the bear market is fundamentally in. Even though the network is undervalued by a key metric history has shown that the price will experiences significant more downside and it is during the bear market that accumulators will eventually step in... way lower than most expect
If you want to use the bitcoin network as it is intended, as a decentralized payment processer, then this is the time to do it. If you are looking for bullish continuation now is not the time.
I am looking to trade things that are moving impulsively with a bullish bias. I continue to see XMR in a bullish cup and handle and will be looking to get dem gains.
My linked ideas show my bullish set up on monero as well as my totally bearish set up on bitcoin.
Despite some confusion bitcoin is both a decentralized payment system and the name of the currency of the network. In contrast, SWIFT is a centralized payment system that has the dollar as its currency.
Bitcoin's greatest value is when the currency is undervalued to the value of transactions it is running. That is when the system is the cheapest to use. It is the most expensive to use when the NTV is high. People with a lot of executive function will plan their purchases of things when they are cheap and sell them when they are expensive. We all wany to do it, some of us are better or worse at it.
Technical Analysis
This marvelous NVTwas created by aamonkey and it helps show when the price of bitcoin about fair value (yellow) or when it is overvalued (red abd above) and undervalued (Green). It is of course sensitive to time frame and I have used it to call for rallies from time to time with warnings that they could just be setting up local highs before going for local lows. The main chart points out the series of operations well enough that I don' think I should replicate it here. I have some other posts where I was watching some triangle or channel formations and if they held that would have signaled a lot more upside. But all that is trumped by the NVT going green on the weekly. History has shown the pattern that when the NVT goes into the green on the weekly it is a vicious bear market. As much as I want gains to the upside the formations broke down.
The chart below shows the triangle I was previously biased bullish on. No doubt it broke down. Price can impulse from here to the downside or it can rally and get back into the triangle or get rejected by previous support. The NVT suggest a bias to the bearish scenarios.
My Positioning
I have in large part left BTC alone because it was range bound and I have not seen an overriding signal to the upside or downside. I have mentioned in several post that I see several triangle formations that could be played very technically but I don't like to play triangles as they are the formations taht are the easiest to recognize but the worst at performance unless they are in a wider structure.
Having seen the NVT finally turn green on the weekly time frame leads me to conclude that the bear market is fundamentally in. Even though the network is undervalued by a key metric history has shown that the price will experiences significant more downside and it is during the bear market that accumulators will eventually step in... way lower than most expect
If you want to use the bitcoin network as it is intended, as a decentralized payment processer, then this is the time to do it. If you are looking for bullish continuation now is not the time.
I am looking to trade things that are moving impulsively with a bullish bias. I continue to see XMR in a bullish cup and handle and will be looking to get dem gains.
My linked ideas show my bullish set up on monero as well as my totally bearish set up on bitcoin.
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