BTC Shot Call no 2

Jul 14

Continuing but with fresh charts from the first idea (Shot call no1) and now to catch the second leg of the idea since last week.

Things look according to plan, despite getting here a different way, the price points and bias are still valid.

Short was activated at the target of the last idea, Trading strategy is Risk on 100% of the time. If it's going let it go, ig it's wrong, manage it and work your way around it.

Looking to target at least 47k mark, but will hold and observe when we get closer to the areas below to determine further. This trade could be held on to for a bit for observation.

47-48 as of now looks to be the most logical and valid target, as we have a few key levels that look to be more prominent versus the smaller ones between here to there, though they could create some light resistance, I wouldn't expect much resistance to falling until the last major consolidation area just below the potential target at 47.

Jul 14

Trade active

Slightly behind in getting the idea made, I'll have to work out some way to have ideas ready to roll from one to the next, as there is always a position going in one direction.

Entry marked at 60,249.80 at 08:05:27 UTC for 0.01

Update to reflect current status

Jul 14

Note

Protective shorts set at 63,800 66,900, each 0.01 BTC to match size of the initial entry to control the breakeven to favorable places if need be, no others at this time.

Will observe should price continue traveling upwards, but high probability set up for a lengthy short run based on daily chart price action patterns

Jul 15

Note

Second short limit reached, on at 63,802.29

Jul 15

Note

Making an adjustment to the final order to mitigate the drawdown a little better, moving the order at 66,9 to 69 into the uppermost levels of the recent consolidation, which if triggered will give a slightly better exit still and worst case full hedge and work it out

Jul 19

Note

"I think I see
A 1-2-3"
If it drops, 47k target.
1-2-3 is a pattern that doesn't come about too often, but usually leads to a big rollover in the market.
This pattern is a long term complex formation similar to a double top break and retest, but it's slightly messier.

Looking on daily, you have the double tops that are fairly flat, we came down then back to the same level, then instead of the break and retest happening immediately upon breaking down, it gradually worked it's way back upwards. Where you would expect the retest, it usually will not happen, but is more prone to drifting near the top few levels, but, once it gets a bit violent with price action.... That's the beginning of the rollover. Pattern usually takes a while to form, and being in the daily, surely takes a minute, but looks like the characteristics of the 1-2-3 are there.

I'll hodl what I've got short a little longer and see.

Jul 21

Note

1-2-3 pattern starting to confirm, triple tap top from where point 3 normally appears in the hourly candles, may add the third short manually soon

Jul 22

Note

67, 837 third entry made. Price held under a clean level and breaking down quickly

Jul 22

Note

Nice break of the trend line, BTC is following EURUSD fairly well, and EURUSD is 2 days ahead.....

Jul 23

Note

How many overnight millionaires do you think we're about to have with Mt Gox repayment?

Going to just hold what's in place and see. The new inverse ETF also gives a more promising outlook, and these two coming together makes a perfect storm for everyone on the short side I think 🤔...

Jul 25

Note

Yes indeed, lots of 10 year old Bitcoin introduced into the market yesterday, rising the price slightly, and on open, panic sell and get paid! Hence the immediate dirt nap on the open today.

Expect plenty more of this behavior to come, as very few are choosing to hodl (~5% are moved to hold I read) the more who receive repayment, the more the price will drop until the payout period ends...

Jul 27

Note

Something is not adding up to me. Yes we have a lot of good news and high targets for BTC, but the very thing Bitcoin was made for, is no longer the case....

It was not meant to be centralized, bank controlled, or otherwise reliant upon third party institution like banks and market overseers, right?

So why would it be going for the moon when the very purpose of its creation is no longer going to be honored?

Something is definitely not sitting right about the latest events, I've got a few other theories, but I ultimately think a crash is coming.

It would take some lengthy explaining to justify my thinking on other theories, but it runs along the lines of why would institutions put their own money into BTC, have ETFs, and other options assets, but not take control of the underlying asset? That's what I think has been going on, they're building into the market and soon, will have enough leverage to move the market similar to the ways it's moved in other markets.

I want to be careful not to buy a top here to full hedge, but will consider it around 72k. I believe these recent events are more for getting as many people involved as possible, to load up retail money into the market. Then cause a small dip to hit some stops, and wooo there we go.

It's quite difficult to get others involved to buy in, with their limited bank accounts and income, but pain is universal and much easier to mak happen.

Think of where all this recent liquidity will exist? Right below the last low we just came from. The rest will get pinched out when they can't wait anymore, and I think BTC can probably go much lower than 43k, should this be the case. Long side is just jacked full of money, be careful...

Jul 27

Note

One other thing to note:
In order to sell something, you must first own it.
Yes there have been some massive buys, and when you buy, you own it. If you wanted to sell it, someone else has to own it and you then get facilitation as the "middle man" of the transaction for someone else to buy it from you....

Basically, if nothing is available to give the facilities to another to short, you can't short.... All the big buys are for short selling liquidity.

Jul 30

Trade closed manually

Trades closed manually, need to attend to some things elsewhere for a bit. Account as a whole between the EURUSD and BTC CFD are net gain of €63 since reset, no real progress but well managed for no loss overall.