BTC analysis
I’m going to do a quick analysis of Bitcoin for fun and to compare my ideas with what actually plays out on the charts. First, I’m looking at this cup and handle formation, which I think is pretty textbook as you can see above. It's been forming since November 2021, and if it plays out as expected, it suggests a minimum price target of around 130k. That would imply there’s still some momentum left in this bull run. additionally if you draw a fib retracement from the top of the cup handle to our current ath (108k) it lines up to around 130k as seen below.
obviously theres going to be pullbacks though so below is a chart showing some rising wedge action we aslo have goin on starting around the same time frames.
As you can see, we've already bounced off the upper trendline and are now consolidating just below it. Ideally, bullish momentum will continue, and we won't experience a significant pullback. The chart below highlights some key resistance levels to keep an eye on moving forward.
Fibonacci retracement levels suggest that our first significant resistance lies just below 88K. Honestly, barring a black swan event or a sharp sell-off, it’s hard to imagine Bitcoin dropping below this level in the near term. There are too many bullish catalysts at play, such as SAB 122 enabling banks to manage crypto, an increasingly crypto-friendly government, and the potential for crypto reserves.
The upcoming FOMC meeting at the end of January could take a hawkish tone, potentially pulling the price back into the
88K–
89K range. Notably, this level has only been briefly tested once since late November.
In the event of a black swan, we could see a retest of the 70K level. Such a move would likely flush out leverage trades and cause many retail investors to exit. This scenario might create an opportunity for banks and institutions to secure unreal entry points before crypto adoption goes mainstream.
Looking at the chart below, 70K aligns closely with the previous all-time high, which was never backtested, as well as the lower trendline of the rising wedge. If this level breaks, it would likely signal the onset of a bear market.
However, with numerous bullish catalysts on the horizon and the strong likelihood of mainstream adoption, I don't believe we'll revisit this level. There are simply too many prospective buyers waiting on the sidelines.
obviously theres going to be pullbacks though so below is a chart showing some rising wedge action we aslo have goin on starting around the same time frames.
As you can see, we've already bounced off the upper trendline and are now consolidating just below it. Ideally, bullish momentum will continue, and we won't experience a significant pullback. The chart below highlights some key resistance levels to keep an eye on moving forward.
Fibonacci retracement levels suggest that our first significant resistance lies just below 88K. Honestly, barring a black swan event or a sharp sell-off, it’s hard to imagine Bitcoin dropping below this level in the near term. There are too many bullish catalysts at play, such as SAB 122 enabling banks to manage crypto, an increasingly crypto-friendly government, and the potential for crypto reserves.
The upcoming FOMC meeting at the end of January could take a hawkish tone, potentially pulling the price back into the
88K–89K range. Notably, this level has only been briefly tested once since late November.In the event of a black swan, we could see a retest of the 70K level. Such a move would likely flush out leverage trades and cause many retail investors to exit. This scenario might create an opportunity for banks and institutions to secure unreal entry points before crypto adoption goes mainstream.
Looking at the chart below, 70K aligns closely with the previous all-time high, which was never backtested, as well as the lower trendline of the rising wedge. If this level breaks, it would likely signal the onset of a bear market.
However, with numerous bullish catalysts on the horizon and the strong likelihood of mainstream adoption, I don't believe we'll revisit this level. There are simply too many prospective buyers waiting on the sidelines.
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