Short

Please, Trade with Caution...

Updated

I think that this concludes Intermediate Wave 2.

I could be wrong, I hope I am, because if I am right, the carnage will be terrible. Please mitigate your risk, that is the only purpose as to why I have started posting.

Please, please, please be careful.

Trade safely.

Note

I should clarify a few things before I stir panic, there is the possibility, that this is still within the Wave 4 correction, and it has turned into an Expanded flat, there is a 3-3 count here. That would mean that the top is not in and there is one more high to print.

I had a series on count invalidations occur which meant I had errors in my count. I have since rectified them and this is the count that makes most logical sense given the behaviour of PA.

I will continue to monitor and post an update when I have confirmation. The true bear run confirmation is at 27108.

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Found another error, now we have a clearer picture...

Chart:

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With each invalidation we double check the count... I think it was a complex correction, no wonder I couldn't get it.

Chart:

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30984

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31022

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Real possibility the top is in... Please trade carefully...

Chart:

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I can confirm that the count presented above is incorrect, however, my overall sentiment remains bearish until we break 32950.

If the Super Cycle Wave 4 correction is not complete, I now place PA in Wave 5 of Wave C of Primary Wave 4, within Wave C of the correction.

If the Super Cycle Wave 5 correction is complete, I now place PA in Wave 3 of an extended Wave 3, which essentially will create the next bull run.

Personally, I am still holding a majority cash position, I will wait for confirmation before I put my dollars back in.

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I think we are bullish, happy if we are, the main intent was to inform people this count existed to help mitigate risk.

I will recount and go from there.

I think all the EWT charts just got broken.

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My count was incorrect, since then I have recounted. Currently, I am unable to make a count bullish. The correction is not over, do not believe the hype.

Here is my updated count.

Char:

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Ignore the micro count, I have not fixed it on this chart. However the count is VALID.

Possible Ending Diagonal forming... Please trade cautiously...

Chart:

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If you are wondering why I post so many micro updates, the purpose is count validation. If I am capable of predicting PA behaviour, I can begin to work out what happens next.

Currently, I am waiting to see if this does form as an Ending Diagonal. Until I have more structure, I will continue to predict, it is the only way to play the game.

Chart:

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For those of you that do not know EWT.

If this is an Ending Diagonal, PA behaves in a very specific way, and we can easily identify the top. IF THIS IS AN ENDING DIAGONAL.

Firstly, you need to understand that EWT works in fractals, despite currently charting on the 15 Minute time frame, it is all about the structure.

The termination for an Ending Diagonal is at the -0.236 FIB when measured from the top of Wave 4, to the bottom of Wave 3. Obviously, it may go higher, but generally speaking, it hits that level and immediately reverses.

BTC terminated Super Cycle Wave 3 as an Ending Diagonal, these form prior to a major reversal, generally at the end of bull runs, and bear markets.

Chart:

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Apologies for the chart, I am travelling at the moment, and using my laptop.

Firstly, this scenario is charting a possible Ending Diagonal, which it may not be.

Chart:

There is no way to guarantee anything at the moment until we have more structure to count.

Be warned, my count, suggests there is potential for PA to move both, to the upside, or, down, and maintain our short term bullish sentiment.

I remain unconvinced the Super Cycle Wave 4 correction is over, I have been searching Trading View and You Tube and can not find a VALID 5 Wave move down from the ATH. I remain cautiously bearish until I know 100% what the next move is, and that can not happen without more structure.

I think I may have posted this chart here previously, it is my recount after my invalidation. There is a lot of room for PA to move.

Trade with caution.

Chart:

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I know I have errors in my Macro Count, so I can not be sure what happens on completion of this next set. However, I can begin to start predicting PA behaviour, given the most recent rejection.

Here is what I am looking for... If PA breaks the Micro Count, it means all of this is part of a larger Wave 4, there is still at least one more local high in this set.

Not doom and gloom yet, if there is doom and gloom at all.

Chart:

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I really don't know what happens after this, I think we might be in a Primary Wave 4. I am still trying to work it all out.

Here are two possible plays on the Macro.

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BTC going to 37500 min... TBH Bull Run may be here, I remain sceptical until we break 42640... Regardless of your bias this is the key level to watch for...

This will be my last post here.

If I feel the market sentiment begin to shift in a bearish way, I maintain my moral obligation to my fellow Traders, and present a possible potential move to the downside for your consideration.

I think it is safe to say, currently, BTC sentiment is bullish.

Safe Trading.

Chart:

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NEW POST!!! Please Click, I have also thrown some EWT educational stuff in the comments. Please check it out and trade with caution.

Regardless of your bias, trade cautiously...

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If you are not following my new post, the Hammer is back...

Chart:

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Found a fractal...

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[u]WARNING[/u]

The count on my chart suggests the next top may be the top, top...

Trade Safe.

Chart:

JMSBurton

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BTC Thesis—October 2023

by JMSBurton

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