Bull Pennant Fake Out (futures contract expires tomorrow)

Jul 26, 2018

As I said in my previous idea that in order for the bull pennant to trigger it's bullish break that the current 4hr candle simply needed to close above it(which it seemed like it was ready to do) I also said it would need a surge in bullish volume to confirm the breakout as well and to look for both of those and not to make any decisions until the breakout is triggered from getting those 2 things. Well, instead we got nothing but a big surge in bearish volume and have broken well below the flag. As I said in my last idea however it was wise to be prepared for this exact opposite outcome. We were unable to overcome the 1 week 50ma and the strong resistance trendline just above the price action. I believe the 2 biggest reasons for this are #1. We were extremely overdue for a correction and #2. The futures contract from April expires tomorrow. We most likely have bearwhales trying to plunge the price just before the expiration. So now probability heavily favors a bearish breakout of this bull pennant which would have a target drop all the way down to around $6,870. Which would be a very satisfying way for a bear to end their futures contract. At the same time after such a huge bull run if we were to rebound up from around that price point we would still be forming a higher low on both the 4hr chart and the 1 day chart....of course there's always a chance it could continue to dip after that and create a lower low on those charts but I'm thinking we will likely jump back upward after the futures expiration(even though I'm once again prepared for the opposite outcome should we not). One thing I have to stress here however, is we need to wait until we see how the very ent 4hr candle behaves to determine whether or not this isn't just another fakeout. It is the confirmation candle and it will confirm the bearbreak either at its close if its still below the flag, or before its close with another big surge in bear volume. All things considered I think it's likely we will trigger the bear breakout but as always be prepared for all outomes...good luck and thans for reading! *not financial advice*