BTC - Pump and Dump or Pump and Continuation? - Oct 1 2021
Last 2 Days BTC has been on a Tear!
After holding the 40 to 41 level (and the long stops) we pumped out dramatically on the 30th.
What appeared to be a potentially bearish enclosing monthly candle ended on September 30th
pumping hard causing general market indecision in what was already an overly bearish month.
This bullish close actually pumped above the summer highs (June and July)
Leading us into nice consolidation above the Weekly Open and an October opening that has been extremely bullish.
Previous Daily Support levels that we gained and retested on the way up were previously lost
and in 24 hours we regained both these levels - 44.4 and 46.8
General Thoughts:
Simply put we need a daily close at this level but preferably higher.
Realistically we have not gained the September 18th high which means we are still set at a perfect
level to swing fail here and turn back down.
However, we also never backtested the high around 52 when we went off that cliff.
This leaves a juicy down wick around 51 that would be a beautiful level to poke at and fail.
Worrying Factors:
The overall volume around this move was quite low yes the leg-up today was more so than expected but overall it was not as high
as would be expected.
Another issue is the DXY which has been absolutely sending right now. This is inversely and albeit loosely
correlated to the general market movement.
Where we are going:
We either swing fail right here and go back down
If 48.8 gets taken out then all those stops are gone and we should go further up to test the high.
And even potentially swing fail that level.
52.8 will be extremely well defended by bears because after that there is literally nothing until 57 to 58
So let us get some high time frame closes here and then gradual and BACKTESTED gains because low volume pumps/dumps,
are not good for a healthy market. I'm still overall very skeptical and more bearish than not
as the Dollar Currency Index (DXY) has been excessively bullish
Personally, I'm not long... yet...
After holding the 40 to 41 level (and the long stops) we pumped out dramatically on the 30th.
What appeared to be a potentially bearish enclosing monthly candle ended on September 30th
pumping hard causing general market indecision in what was already an overly bearish month.
This bullish close actually pumped above the summer highs (June and July)
Leading us into nice consolidation above the Weekly Open and an October opening that has been extremely bullish.
Previous Daily Support levels that we gained and retested on the way up were previously lost
and in 24 hours we regained both these levels - 44.4 and 46.8
General Thoughts:
Simply put we need a daily close at this level but preferably higher.
Realistically we have not gained the September 18th high which means we are still set at a perfect
level to swing fail here and turn back down.
However, we also never backtested the high around 52 when we went off that cliff.
This leaves a juicy down wick around 51 that would be a beautiful level to poke at and fail.
Worrying Factors:
The overall volume around this move was quite low yes the leg-up today was more so than expected but overall it was not as high
as would be expected.
Another issue is the DXY which has been absolutely sending right now. This is inversely and albeit loosely
correlated to the general market movement.
Where we are going:
We either swing fail right here and go back down
If 48.8 gets taken out then all those stops are gone and we should go further up to test the high.
And even potentially swing fail that level.
52.8 will be extremely well defended by bears because after that there is literally nothing until 57 to 58
So let us get some high time frame closes here and then gradual and BACKTESTED gains because low volume pumps/dumps,
are not good for a healthy market. I'm still overall very skeptical and more bearish than not
as the Dollar Currency Index (DXY) has been excessively bullish
Personally, I'm not long... yet...
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