BITCOIN The Cyclical Bearish signal of the RSI

Oct 20, 2022

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For this particular analysis on BTCUSDT we are using the BTCUSDT symbol on the OKX exchange.
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The idea is on the 1D time-frame where BTCUSDT (BTCUSDT) is about to confirm or invalidate a very accurate signal provided by the RSI throughout the whole 2022.

As you see, the RSI is currently supported on a Higher Lows trend-line that started on the September 06 Low. Throughout the year, when the RSI broke below similar Higher Lows structures, Bitcoin's price dropped sharply. What is even more interesting is that the previous two RSI break-outs happened exactly 64 days since the previous one. This is the first difference from that (otherwise) very consistent pattern: BTCUSDT is currently 5 days past that 64 day strike level (October 15).

This could be an early sign of a potential invalidation of this Cyclical pattern. I call it Cyclical because see how harmonically the Sine Waves guide the price action. But let's not draw the attention away from the RSI which is the key of this pattern. As long as it trades above the Higher Lows trend-line, the probabilities of invalidation get stronger. Perhaps for a pattern change a strike level can be used and this might be if the price closes above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which has been the Resistance since early April. If on the other hand, the RSI breaks below the Higher Lows trend-line, then the Cyclical Bearish pattern is confirmed and we should be expecting a considerably lower price.

For comparison purposes I have plotted the previous three sharp drops (grey, yellow and blue trend-lines) after the RSI break-down on the current price action. Pick your poison in that case. By the way, the LMACD indicator also gives an early sell warning on this Cyclical pattern and that is when the histogram attempts to get narrower. We have started such a sequence in the past 10 days.

So how useful do you think this RSI Cyclical pattern is? Do you think it will be confirmed for the 4th time in a row or invalidated above the 1D MA100 and practically establish the new Bull Cycle? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!



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