Here's a bearish technical analysis for CHF/JPY on the H4 charts:
1. **Trend Analysis**: - The overall trend on the H4 chart shows a bearish momentum. The price has been making lower highs and lower lows, indicating a downtrend.
2. **Moving Averages**: - The 50-period and 200-period moving averages are above the current price, which is a bearish signal. The price is also below the 20-period moving average, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.
3. **Support and Resistance Levels**: - **Resistance**: The nearest resistance level is around 177.00, which aligns with the previous swing high. - **Support**: The immediate support level is at 175.50, which is a recent swing low. A break below this level could lead to further declines.
4. **Fibonacci Retracement**: - The price is currently hovering around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the recent high to low. A break below this level could see the price targeting the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels, which are around 174.50 and 173.50, respectively.
5. **Technical Indicators**: - **RSI**: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below 50, indicating bearish momentum. - **MACD**: The MACD line is below the signal line, and both are below the zero line, which is a bearish signal. - **Stochastic Oscillator**: The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold territory, suggesting that there might be a short-term pullback before the downtrend continues.
6. **Chart Patterns**: - There is a potential bearish flag pattern forming, which could indicate a continuation of the downtrend if the price breaks below the flag's lower boundary.
7. **Volume Analysis**: - The volume has been decreasing during the recent upward corrections, suggesting that the bullish moves are weak and the bears are likely to regain control.
In summary, the CHF/JPY pair on the H4 chart shows several bearish signals, including a downtrend, bearish moving averages, and bearish technical indicators. Traders should watch for a break below the support levels and the continuation of the bearish patterns for potential short opportunities.
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