Is a Big Move Coming in Crude Oil?
Crude oil has been limping for most of this year, and now some traders may see risk of a bigger drop.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the relentless series of lower highs since September 2023. The trend lines along these peaks have dropped at steeper angles, which potentially reflects increased selling pressure.
The second pattern is the series of slightly higher lows since September 2024. That may be viewed as a bearish flag.
Third, consider the 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). They swung earlier in the year, with the faster above the slower at times but that changed 2-3 months ago. They’re now in a clearer sequence, with the faster SMAs below the slower SMAs. All three are also falling. That could also indicate a longer-term downtrend has developed.
Next is the support zone around 64.50 to 67.75. Prices bounced quickly from this range between March and June of 2023, but are now spending more time in the same area. That could suggest longer-term support is fading.
Speaking of longer-term support, the second chart uses 2-week candles to compare the current environment with late 2014. Both saw long periods of sideways movement with lower highs. The earlier moment saw an accelerated downtrend once the weekly support level broke. Could a similar move be coming soon?
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Please add the futures disclosure: Security futures are not suitable for all investors. To obtain a copy of the security futures risk disclosure statement visit https://www.TradeStation.com/DisclosureFutures.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at https://www.TradeStation.com/DisclosureOptions. Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on https://www.TradeStation.com/Important-Information/. System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
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The first pattern on today’s chart is the relentless series of lower highs since September 2023. The trend lines along these peaks have dropped at steeper angles, which potentially reflects increased selling pressure.
The second pattern is the series of slightly higher lows since September 2024. That may be viewed as a bearish flag.
Third, consider the 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). They swung earlier in the year, with the faster above the slower at times but that changed 2-3 months ago. They’re now in a clearer sequence, with the faster SMAs below the slower SMAs. All three are also falling. That could also indicate a longer-term downtrend has developed.
Next is the support zone around 64.50 to 67.75. Prices bounced quickly from this range between March and June of 2023, but are now spending more time in the same area. That could suggest longer-term support is fading.
Speaking of longer-term support, the second chart uses 2-week candles to compare the current environment with late 2014. Both saw long periods of sideways movement with lower highs. The earlier moment saw an accelerated downtrend once the weekly support level broke. Could a similar move be coming soon?
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more.
Please add the futures disclosure: Security futures are not suitable for all investors. To obtain a copy of the security futures risk disclosure statement visit https://www.TradeStation.com/DisclosureFutures.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at https://www.TradeStation.com/DisclosureOptions. Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on https://www.TradeStation.com/Important-Information/. System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit https://www.TradeStation.com/DisclosureTSCompanies for further important information explaining what this means.
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