Coupang, Inc.Long
CPNG Monster IPO, Can It Dominate S. Korean e-Commerce Market?
CPNG background - Amazon/Alibaba of South Korea, differentiating on the e-commerce customer service side, members have unique features such as a no box/label item return that can be left in front of one's home or apt (theft in general is rare in S Korea). Founder dropped out of Harvard, CPNG aims to offer the "least stressful path" and create a hyper convenient consumer experience with a focus on minimizing interaction processes by the typical consumer. 70% of Koreans currently live within 7 miles of a fulfillment center.
IPO was strategically listed in the US over domestic capital markets to achieve its monster funding goal. CPNG will need all the dry powder for CapEx in order to capture market share from family owned conglomerates that still dominate the Korean economy.
IPO priced at $35, with the typical opening trade falling price action to more sensible levels. I do not expect price to drop as low as the IPO, heavy wall st and SoftBank backing is looking for CPNG to be a golden egg. The current business environment is severely lacking in successful unicorn tech startups that have maintained an industry lead beyond a decade, with only Kakao and Naver coming to mind. Other fundamentals to be aware of: Early expiration of employee share lock ups happened yesterday, eye raising number of fulfillment center employee incidents resulting in deaths, quiet period (40 days), short sales allowed (30 days).
Technicals:
- 1hr double wick bottom $42.75 creating the local price floor as of now.
- Bollinger Bands showing possible short term consolidation, narrowing bands are typically followed by a momentum move in either direction.
- Retest of resistance turned support line (not shown on chart, price action today confirmed the bounce).
- Fib retrace GP coinciding with minor resistance at $55.
- Options: looking for IV to settle in
Entry: $35-$44, DCA until true bottom is found
Options: 16 Apr $55 C, 19 Nov $70 & $75 C (nov contract currently the longest expiry available)
Stop: $34.69
T1: $55 (Fib GP)
T2: $62 (Fib 1, opening trade price zone)
Drop a follow to catch my future FundaTechno trade analysis as they go live. (Not financial advice)
IPO was strategically listed in the US over domestic capital markets to achieve its monster funding goal. CPNG will need all the dry powder for CapEx in order to capture market share from family owned conglomerates that still dominate the Korean economy.
IPO priced at $35, with the typical opening trade falling price action to more sensible levels. I do not expect price to drop as low as the IPO, heavy wall st and SoftBank backing is looking for CPNG to be a golden egg. The current business environment is severely lacking in successful unicorn tech startups that have maintained an industry lead beyond a decade, with only Kakao and Naver coming to mind. Other fundamentals to be aware of: Early expiration of employee share lock ups happened yesterday, eye raising number of fulfillment center employee incidents resulting in deaths, quiet period (40 days), short sales allowed (30 days).
Technicals:
- 1hr double wick bottom $42.75 creating the local price floor as of now.
- Bollinger Bands showing possible short term consolidation, narrowing bands are typically followed by a momentum move in either direction.
- Retest of resistance turned support line (not shown on chart, price action today confirmed the bounce).
- Fib retrace GP coinciding with minor resistance at $55.
- Options: looking for IV to settle in
Entry: $35-$44, DCA until true bottom is found
Options: 16 Apr $55 C, 19 Nov $70 & $75 C (nov contract currently the longest expiry available)
Stop: $34.69
T1: $55 (Fib GP)
T2: $62 (Fib 1, opening trade price zone)
Drop a follow to catch my future FundaTechno trade analysis as they go live. (Not financial advice)
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