The Real Idea Of Elliott Wave Theory
Hello friends.
Many people who use wave theory have no idea what they are doing at all. They make a common mistake that I see over and over again, which is assuming that TIME and PRICE is irrelevant when determining degree.
Here is the thing. Here is how degree works. Wave theory is a fractal system where each wave is made up of subwaves which are also made up of subwaves. And each subwave always makes up a larger wave form.
People get confused by this idea and overextrapolate infinite growth into finite systems (see, bitcoin, shitcoins, etc).
To fix this human error of forcing wave counts to seem infinite (when they of course cannot be), we can implement a rule into our wave counting. No sub-degree that's large enough to consider as part of your wave count should elapse more time or more price than a larger degree.
In practice, we can throw out the count shown here as an unviable option, because the black (2) wave only elapses 9 days of time, while the "sub-degree" green 2 wave elapses a much greater period of time, breaking the rule that sub-degrees cannot take up more time than their larger degrees. There is a similar idea with price. If the sub-degree had fallen enough in price, the count could also be seen as invalid for this reason.
Now, there are always sub-degrees that will be smaller than the extent of the waves that you count. That's good. We don't need too much detail, we just need to get the general idea of the market. That is why we rarely go more than 1-2 degrees deep. The deeper you go, the more you stack guesses on top of guesses, and the more uncertainty you need to be willing to accept. Ironically, wave forecasters who use more sub-degrees often end up feeling LESS uncertain about their ideas, since they think that they have "more evidence". There is a lack of understanding here. Each wave is not "evidence". Each wave is a "guess". Most wave theorists are so bad at guessing, that they would be better off if they did it randomly, while a special few are actually talented at it, like me, which is illustrated by my trading history. Every wave count is a best guess about which pattern the market is seeming to match up with. Don't use any of the rules of wave theory as absolute requirements, because the markets are always evolving over time, and all models are wrong.
Many people who use wave theory have no idea what they are doing at all. They make a common mistake that I see over and over again, which is assuming that TIME and PRICE is irrelevant when determining degree.
Here is the thing. Here is how degree works. Wave theory is a fractal system where each wave is made up of subwaves which are also made up of subwaves. And each subwave always makes up a larger wave form.
People get confused by this idea and overextrapolate infinite growth into finite systems (see, bitcoin, shitcoins, etc).
To fix this human error of forcing wave counts to seem infinite (when they of course cannot be), we can implement a rule into our wave counting. No sub-degree that's large enough to consider as part of your wave count should elapse more time or more price than a larger degree.
In practice, we can throw out the count shown here as an unviable option, because the black (2) wave only elapses 9 days of time, while the "sub-degree" green 2 wave elapses a much greater period of time, breaking the rule that sub-degrees cannot take up more time than their larger degrees. There is a similar idea with price. If the sub-degree had fallen enough in price, the count could also be seen as invalid for this reason.
Now, there are always sub-degrees that will be smaller than the extent of the waves that you count. That's good. We don't need too much detail, we just need to get the general idea of the market. That is why we rarely go more than 1-2 degrees deep. The deeper you go, the more you stack guesses on top of guesses, and the more uncertainty you need to be willing to accept. Ironically, wave forecasters who use more sub-degrees often end up feeling LESS uncertain about their ideas, since they think that they have "more evidence". There is a lack of understanding here. Each wave is not "evidence". Each wave is a "guess". Most wave theorists are so bad at guessing, that they would be better off if they did it randomly, while a special few are actually talented at it, like me, which is illustrated by my trading history. Every wave count is a best guess about which pattern the market is seeming to match up with. Don't use any of the rules of wave theory as absolute requirements, because the markets are always evolving over time, and all models are wrong.
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