Battle Plan for ES for 07/27

The ES has a large gap up.
Market Driven Move - Non Organic
VIX at normal levels.
Globex Volume off by 50k
Trend Days have a tendency to start in the Globex


Scenario 1: At open sellers immediately step in and drive price down towards Previous Day High. In this scenario we are looking for a minimum of half gap fill (Day Open + Previous Day High) /2
Expect heavy volume at the open, and then go into chop and drift back up throughout the remainder of the session.

Scenario 2: Quick push down, rejection (ORR) and then immediately start trending to the half century 4650 and potentially 4667 territory's. This would be around a 30 point move, and is inline with the daily range.

Scenario 3: The market starts whipping, V shape recovery's on both sides. The Vix is around 12 at the time of writing. If the VIX climbs > 20 HFT will shut off, and this scenario will become more plausible as the book thins out, and the market becomes easier to manipulate via price.


If you are a new trader or you have a small account, today is not the day to play hero, you do not want this to get away from you. Make sure to focus on risk today.

There is a solid edge that the market will close up on the day. But as of now I am anticipating the 1st scenario to play out. And I expect that to play out by 1130 eastern.

Trade closed: target reached:

Half gap filled hit.
Previous day High hit

This did not happen in the way I thought it would. I thought we would see much more aggressive selling.

Slow grind back up and chop around Mid/POC with small moves