$SPY and $ES_F
Updated
I try my best to stay away from "call-out" type posts because that's not really what I'm about. That being said, I'm doing one today in conjunction with an educational post because they fit together pretty well.
Note: on the main chart I'm submitting with this, the topmost moving average (where price is resting as I write this) is the 200HMA using daily candles. The bottommost moving average is the 200HMA using monthly candles.
SHORT VERSION
The short version is that I'm looking for a short entry on
ES1! and/or 
SPY.
THE LONG VERSION
In roughly the past 10 years, ES futures and SPY have fallen below the 200HMA on the weekly candle a handful of times. My data plan on TradingView I guess doesn't give me far enough data to show it, but on my other charting platform you can see that as far back as 2011 almost every single time ES has fallen below the 200HMA on the weekly it has been caught by the 200HMA on the monthly. 100% of the time that price has fallen below the 200HMA on the weekly it has resulted in a sustained period of volatility.
Currently, ES has not breached this sufficiently but it looks to be close. What I'm looking for as confirmation before entering is:
If this criteria is met, I'm going short on ES selling short contracts but also buying puts on SPY as well. While you don't want to buy calls as a way to "buy the dip" due to the impact of elevated
VIX after a sell-off, you may want to buy puts if you are expecting a sell-off due to the impact that an exploding VIX will have on your options premiums.
To be clear, I am not calling for some catastrophic market crash. I'm calling for a technical correction to a regularly established baseline that's all.
PT 1 for me would be 4100. PT 2 for me would be 3400. For context 1 contract forMES1! (the little brother to ES) nets you $5 per point. If I were to enter at 4400 then by PT 1 (if I'm right), that results in 1500/contract excluding fees.
CLARIFYING STATEMENTS
This is a play I'm entering with or without posting this. If you decide to follow along, you're making a conscious decision of your own. If you decide to enter and this fails, you will get no sympathy from me, I will award you no points, and my God have mercy on your soul.
Note: on the main chart I'm submitting with this, the topmost moving average (where price is resting as I write this) is the 200HMA using daily candles. The bottommost moving average is the 200HMA using monthly candles.
SHORT VERSION
The short version is that I'm looking for a short entry on
ES1! and/or SPY.THE LONG VERSION
In roughly the past 10 years, ES futures and SPY have fallen below the 200HMA on the weekly candle a handful of times. My data plan on TradingView I guess doesn't give me far enough data to show it, but on my other charting platform you can see that as far back as 2011 almost every single time ES has fallen below the 200HMA on the weekly it has been caught by the 200HMA on the monthly. 100% of the time that price has fallen below the 200HMA on the weekly it has resulted in a sustained period of volatility.
Currently, ES has not breached this sufficiently but it looks to be close. What I'm looking for as confirmation before entering is:
- the weekly candle for the week of 1/23/2022 opens below the 200HMA on the weekly candle
- daily volume on ES has not fallen below 1.2mn (click the related idea for my overview of using volume to help time when the bottom may be in)
If this criteria is met, I'm going short on ES selling short contracts but also buying puts on SPY as well. While you don't want to buy calls as a way to "buy the dip" due to the impact of elevated
VIX after a sell-off, you may want to buy puts if you are expecting a sell-off due to the impact that an exploding VIX will have on your options premiums.To be clear, I am not calling for some catastrophic market crash. I'm calling for a technical correction to a regularly established baseline that's all.
PT 1 for me would be 4100. PT 2 for me would be 3400. For context 1 contract for
MES1! (the little brother to ES) nets you $5 per point. If I were to enter at 4400 then by PT 1 (if I'm right), that results in 1500/contract excluding fees.CLARIFYING STATEMENTS
This is a play I'm entering with or without posting this. If you decide to follow along, you're making a conscious decision of your own. If you decide to enter and this fails, you will get no sympathy from me, I will award you no points, and my God have mercy on your soul.
Note
Link to updated chart with my momentum level added on the bottom. If there's no big bounce tomorrow I'll probably enter in prep for next week. That being said, momentum is already bottoming out on the daily so next week could be green to flat to cool off. Will be paying attention to 1/21/22.Note
Futures are down right now close to 1% around 6PM Pacific time. I'm looking for a green day (or at the very least mostly flat) tomorrow, 1/25/2022. Daily momentum is SUPER overheated and the entire OHLC candle during market hours for SPY was outside the lower bound of the Bollinger Band. Check back in tomorrow.Note
A couple days early on the upswing call. I've closed out half of my position, entry at 4475. Closed 1/4 at 4343 (bringing me to basically house money on my position) and 1/4 at 4290.Watching the 4420 and 4480 price levels to see where things go. Potential completion play coming up. Still expecting back down after some green to complete the pattern. We'll see.
Note
Completion play looks to be in. Price drifted back up as expected. Looking for today's rejection off of the 200 week Hull Moving Average as expected. Will update with a PT on the next leg down tonight or tomorrow.Note
Apologies on not updating earlier, kind of lost track of this and it didn't seem like this was getting much engagement so didn't think anyone would really care. Just updating for posterity. Took most of my position off the table yesterday on the last big dump down. Looks like I'll capture the rest at 4,000 tomorrow at this rate.Congrats to anyone who listened and came along with me.
Trade closed manually
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