#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 10.13 - 10.18
Last Week :
Interesting week we had as many different things happened and it was fun to watch.
Last week Globex opened and made a return back into distribution balance, RTH flushed the inventory back into VAL but we again were able to hold VAL into the close and Tuesday Globex rotated back inside balance which brought buying and gave us another failed attempt out of balance top but market was able to hold over the 80s and supply which brought in more buying and triggered a short covering stop run into next Value which held and gave some continuation to close the week.
This Week :
Friday market attempted a push for VAH into 5840 - 80s Intraday range. We were able to hold around the mean of the of the range into the close but we can see it ended with a Poor high and Weakness into into 50s.
IF we are to accept in this new range then we would see price holding over 840s, over Value if that will be the case then we could continue trading in this range over VAL and start building up for an attempt at VAH test.
BUT we have to be careful as mentioned last week and week before that previous distribution range was a very interesting area and with current PA we might not be fully done with it, of course we will have to see what the market will actually do. Which means if we don't accept inside/over Value then this push could find its way back under 40s into VAL, IF we will be holding under 30s with Supply above that could trigger more weakness to get us back towards the Edge and eventually if we will have the supply find a way back into Previous Balance.
Something to note this week is Volume has been low, we don't have any market moving news until Thursday so need to be careful for more a slow leak back in instead of a quick return if it is to happen, holding over 830s would or 860s would change the weakness.
Interesting week we had as many different things happened and it was fun to watch.
Last week Globex opened and made a return back into distribution balance, RTH flushed the inventory back into VAL but we again were able to hold VAL into the close and Tuesday Globex rotated back inside balance which brought buying and gave us another failed attempt out of balance top but market was able to hold over the 80s and supply which brought in more buying and triggered a short covering stop run into next Value which held and gave some continuation to close the week.
This Week :
Friday market attempted a push for VAH into 5840 - 80s Intraday range. We were able to hold around the mean of the of the range into the close but we can see it ended with a Poor high and Weakness into into 50s.
IF we are to accept in this new range then we would see price holding over 840s, over Value if that will be the case then we could continue trading in this range over VAL and start building up for an attempt at VAH test.
BUT we have to be careful as mentioned last week and week before that previous distribution range was a very interesting area and with current PA we might not be fully done with it, of course we will have to see what the market will actually do. Which means if we don't accept inside/over Value then this push could find its way back under 40s into VAL, IF we will be holding under 30s with Supply above that could trigger more weakness to get us back towards the Edge and eventually if we will have the supply find a way back into Previous Balance.
Something to note this week is Volume has been low, we don't have any market moving news until Thursday so need to be careful for more a slow leak back in instead of a quick return if it is to happen, holding over 830s would or 860s would change the weakness.
Comment
Globex held above Value and was able to get us back right into VAH before RTH open, RTH made a push outside Value and continued towards next Edge, looks obvious now as Edge Top/Bottom is a possible target once price accepts inside a range but didn't think we would push for it right away. Now the question is since this move was done on lower Volume day, without any data or news until Thursday, did we save any to keep pushing OR what sometimes happens on a test of a big area it gives a reaction in an opposite way. With current volume and how slow things are it might not be a fast reaction but something to watch for is this Edge being our possible top which means holding under it will bring in weakness for a return back towards VAH and then eventually back inside the Value, we are at ATH so it might take a bit to build up for that or it may turn around next day or two, holding over 920s and a strong push over Edge top would be needed to think higher prices from here, this would be an area for longs to sell around so we have to be careful with looking for higher prices unless we see it. If this is the Edge prices accepts in and we can't continue higher over it then we will look for a return back to Value of the Range. Comment
Yesterday we flushed the supply from Edge back to VAH and had enough to make a push back inside Value of the HTF Range. This pushed us back inside the marked off Intraday range which is around 890 - 40s +/- which so far we are showing acceptance in as we came in and spent time and volume inside its mean area around 870s - 50s, we did get slow grind over 70s to back fill some of yesterdays move back into VAH and had enough juice to make a push over VAH but closed right under it within the accepted range. We do have single prints above us which are our supply, so we could continue grinding here around VAH, maybe make another push above to try and fill some more singles BUT need to be careful up here because IF the market can't push over VAH, hold above AND get over 5900s areas and accept in that ranges mean then we will look for a return back inside Value to get back inside the 870 - 50s area and if we will have the supply try to make a push for 40s towards VAL. For now Value range is the range im going with until structure tells me otherwise. 
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