Sell in May and go Away?

May 2, 2021

May is here and what will it be of these markets. Historically the next 6 months are the lowest returns. ES futures are up roughly 14% YTD. Primary trend is still intact and the strength of this trend seems to be losing some strength on a short term basis. The 50% retracement at 4163 has been acting as Support, breaking this will tell me that it will drop lower until buyers come back into the market around 4150 area. In this 240minute chart I'll be listing some possible scenarios. UPSIDE SCENARIO: Importance price zones to be aware of are 4189-4200, if this area of supply (distribution) breaks the primary trend will continue to test the swing pivot high of 4211 which will act like a level of Resistance, if R breaks we can see a new ATH and with it a clear sky for the Bulls to continue its uptrend momentum. DOWNSIDE SCENARIO: Importance price zones to be aware of are 4146-4127.50, if this area of demand (accumulation) breaks, price will continue to test the controlling swing pivot low of 4115.25 which will act as a level of Support, if S breaks it will create a sideways secondary trend (5% swing), with the primary trend still being to the upside. The key level to the downside is 4115.25, breaking this will generate a selloff to the next price level of demand around 4067. This area can hold for a short term trade but eventually will break to the psychological area of importance of the last major price imbalance around 3960-3940 area.

May 11, 2021

Trade closed: target reached

Target Reached May 7