ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: How Much Higher?
Updated
ETHUSD update: All time high of 418 reached and not too far from the 437 extension. Since the break beyond the 355 range resistance, this market has been making significant progress as far as attempting to clear the big picture range. Why 437? I will explain.
In my previous report, I wrote about the 371 target, and what this market had to do in order to reach the 392 level and beyond. The problem is this market refuses to retrace to a more attractive support level for a swing trade long based on MY strategy. Before this new high, I wrote about a retest of the 335 level, but the market chose 350 instead. Keep in mind I cannot monitor these markets and update my reports 24 hours a day (as some people on here seem to expect hehe). I constantly explain the ability to be flexible and nimble is required to navigate these markets, especially on smaller time frames. If you cannot figure out how to spot a higher low on your own, then you should not be trading real money. The purpose behind my analysis is to provide a perspective, or a context to help you make better decisions, NOT to make decisions for you.
As of now, this market is sitting on the highs. What is reasonable to expect from here? MY plan is to wait for a retrace and attempt to buy for a swing trade long. AGAIN, if my levels are not reached, then I can't force a trade. You must decide if the risk makes sense for you and your plan IF the market ONLY offers a shallow retrace like it has been doing since the 330 breakout. I write these reports based on the risk that is appropriate for MY plan, just to be clear (I understand the majority of the community understands this, I just have to write this for the limited few who don't).
Here are the levels I am waiting for: 392 which is the previous peak (old resistance, new support), 384 which is the .382 support measured from the 350 low and IF this market retraces further than that, then I will be watching the 370 to 360 support zone which is the .618 area relevant to the 350 low also. If I can manage to get long, I will be looking for this market to make a run for the 437 target (1.618 extensions measured from the 350 low). These proportions are based on market structure and is why they offer somewhat reliable estimates.
At the rate this market is moving, it may NOT retest the projected supports any time soon. My plan forces me not to buy highs and wait for supports. If it retraces to a more shallow level, and the risk is within your plan, then you have to make the adjustment. I will do my best to report any adjustments to the levels that I see.
One other observation about the current situation is this: I can count 5 waves starting at the 286 low. 5 waves on top of price pushing through a 1.618 extension (406) in a vertical line is often a recipe for a retrace. Just another reason not to buy these highs, and instead lock in some profit if you have been holding from much lower prices. TO BE CLEAR, I am waiting for a retrace that may not happen, I am NOT calling for a major correction. This market is likely in a large scale Wave 3 which is very bullish.
In summary, this market is making significant progress as far as breaking out of the large consolidation it has been gyrating within for weeks. All time highs signal more strength to come, but also present higher risk of retrace. I am waiting for the retrace, because that is what MY plan calls for. I do my best to share observations and levels that are useful, but if you do not have a well defined strategy and process of evaluating risk, then no analysis will help you. If you cannot make decisions and accept responsibility, then you should not trade. Either find a signal service, or pay a trader to trade for you, that is my suggestion.
Comments and questions welcome. (The community has been doing an excellent job of answering many questions for me. I try go through them and answer as many as I can. If you can't wait, then please PM me).
In my previous report, I wrote about the 371 target, and what this market had to do in order to reach the 392 level and beyond. The problem is this market refuses to retrace to a more attractive support level for a swing trade long based on MY strategy. Before this new high, I wrote about a retest of the 335 level, but the market chose 350 instead. Keep in mind I cannot monitor these markets and update my reports 24 hours a day (as some people on here seem to expect hehe). I constantly explain the ability to be flexible and nimble is required to navigate these markets, especially on smaller time frames. If you cannot figure out how to spot a higher low on your own, then you should not be trading real money. The purpose behind my analysis is to provide a perspective, or a context to help you make better decisions, NOT to make decisions for you.
As of now, this market is sitting on the highs. What is reasonable to expect from here? MY plan is to wait for a retrace and attempt to buy for a swing trade long. AGAIN, if my levels are not reached, then I can't force a trade. You must decide if the risk makes sense for you and your plan IF the market ONLY offers a shallow retrace like it has been doing since the 330 breakout. I write these reports based on the risk that is appropriate for MY plan, just to be clear (I understand the majority of the community understands this, I just have to write this for the limited few who don't).
Here are the levels I am waiting for: 392 which is the previous peak (old resistance, new support), 384 which is the .382 support measured from the 350 low and IF this market retraces further than that, then I will be watching the 370 to 360 support zone which is the .618 area relevant to the 350 low also. If I can manage to get long, I will be looking for this market to make a run for the 437 target (1.618 extensions measured from the 350 low). These proportions are based on market structure and is why they offer somewhat reliable estimates.
At the rate this market is moving, it may NOT retest the projected supports any time soon. My plan forces me not to buy highs and wait for supports. If it retraces to a more shallow level, and the risk is within your plan, then you have to make the adjustment. I will do my best to report any adjustments to the levels that I see.
One other observation about the current situation is this: I can count 5 waves starting at the 286 low. 5 waves on top of price pushing through a 1.618 extension (406) in a vertical line is often a recipe for a retrace. Just another reason not to buy these highs, and instead lock in some profit if you have been holding from much lower prices. TO BE CLEAR, I am waiting for a retrace that may not happen, I am NOT calling for a major correction. This market is likely in a large scale Wave 3 which is very bullish.
In summary, this market is making significant progress as far as breaking out of the large consolidation it has been gyrating within for weeks. All time highs signal more strength to come, but also present higher risk of retrace. I am waiting for the retrace, because that is what MY plan calls for. I do my best to share observations and levels that are useful, but if you do not have a well defined strategy and process of evaluating risk, then no analysis will help you. If you cannot make decisions and accept responsibility, then you should not trade. Either find a signal service, or pay a trader to trade for you, that is my suggestion.
Comments and questions welcome. (The community has been doing an excellent job of answering many questions for me. I try go through them and answer as many as I can. If you can't wait, then please PM me).
Note
Also wanted to wish a happy Thanksgiving to the community. I am very thankful for the wonderful support and appreciation from the Tradingview participants (along with the critics who keep me on my toes). And special thank you to goldbug1 for the constant support and contributions!
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