Deceptive market at the beginning of the year

Jan 4

The first week of the new year is coming to an end, I want to review the market situation. The year for ether and bitcoin opened in the 90-95k and 3250-3500 flat zones. Due to this, the new annual candle is swinging quite calmly. However, in my opinion, this lull is deceptive. The current wave of purchases is so far only a retest of the key 100k level for bitcoin, from where the probability of a bear attack is high. For many altcoins that have shown growth to date, this is also only a retest of the last resistance.
The foreign exchange market also closed the first week extremely negatively, with a steady rise in the dollar. In my opinion, from the current pullback in the crypt, there is a high probability of a resumption of sales, which we observed at the end of the year, with an attempt to continue the trend in bitcoin in order to work out a retest of 75-85k. In this case, today or tomorrow, the crypto market may align with the currency, with significant sales, up to the turning point of the week for individual coins.
In an optimistic scenario, ether will hold 3500 and open a new week higher, by increasing the gap in the eth/btc pair, due to the opening of the year above 0.0035. In this case, with smooth stable sales of bitcoin, altcoins will have opportunities for growth and a further 15% increase in the altcoin index. In my opinion, the probability of this scenario still prevails.
In a more negative scenario, sales of bitcoin and ether will be more aggressive. In this case, bitcoin can show a sharp increase in dominance and money from the market will be used to smooth out the fall of bitcoin. At the same time, the altcoin index may drop down to a 9% retest, which will lead to fractures for most coins.
With the current picture and the threat of a 75k hike in bitcoin, I still recommend carefully weighing money management and reducing positions for those who did not do so in the wake of growth before the new year. Next week, it will be possible to weigh the activity of sellers and make more confident forecasts.
As I expected, there was another manipulation of binance tags this week. It was not for nothing that before the change of year I recommended sales for troy with a likely hike to 0.0025, even then it became obvious that there was no working out of higher goals and a reversal to retest loyalties. After assigning the tag, a test of 0.0015-25 is likely.
As I wrote in the last article, if there is no assignment of the monitoring tag, vib becomes the most interesting tool in the current market. If binance did not consider the dynamics of the token too weak, there is a high probability of continued growth to reverse the medium-term bullish trend with an exit to 0.25+ and the addition of futures. There has already been a successful cancellation of year-end sales and an attempt to return to the trend. With an optimistic scenario and an exit above 0.00000100 for vib/btc, there is a possibility of a powerful impulse to break last week and pair with udt. In the current overbought market, vib remains the most oversold token on binance, which retains a high growth potential. There has also been a rise in vib against bitcoin more than once, creating a gap in vib/btc. A similar pattern could happen again this week. In case of a successful breakdown of vib, vite can also show pleasant dynamics, which also remains the most oversold on binance, having very high technical targets for retest. But because of the monitoring tag, vite growth attempts most often occur last before the week closes.
On average, for most altcoins, I still expect synchronous movement with the altcoin index, before determining further dynamics in the tops in the new week. In my opinion, the probability of fashionable breakouts or steady growth ahead of the altcoin index in the new week is rather weak.

Jan 10

Trade active

Today, the next week of the new year is coming to an end and there is an opportunity for shopping. The crypto market, as I assumed, began to level off under the rising dollar and the falling foreign exchange market. Stable sales began from the retest of 100k for bitcoin. However, I emphasized the rather positive opening of the year, especially on ether, which is highly likely to lead to the buy-off of large bearish candles. At the moment, there is a high probability of buying off the current weekly candle to retest its opening level.
With this picture, in the next two days, there is a high probability of impulses to turn the weekly candle into a bullish one for individual coins. In particular, vib once again performed well, with a fairly effective sales suppression with steadily falling tops and a powerful attempt to turn the week around on Wednesday, which shows a clear bullish mood on the weekly chart. This token is still primarily considered for scalping against the background of the continuing probability of going to retest in the range of 0.15-25.
The ast has also returned to strong support, and when trying to reverse the weekly candle, there is a chance of an impulse of up to 50%+. Secondly, I am considering cream alpaca vidt og pda bifi for scalping. In case of a successful increase in buyer activity and a breakdown in coins, the probability of a breakdown in coins with the monitoring tag will increase, among which hard and troy can show an increase of up to 50%. A particularly large potential for a retest of 0.021-25 has been accumulated for vite, which, with a successful market reversal, can bring up to 80-100%. However, let me remind you about the danger of delisting coins with the monitoring tag. In this regard, it is worth carefully assessing the risk and money management. Also, work with coins of this tag only in the second half of the week, before the opening of a new one with breakouts in most cases, last of all closer to the close of the week.