ETH Journey to 2025: Key Levels and Market Scenarios

Sep 20

Hello friends,

In late 2021, Ethereum (ETHUSDT) reached an all-time high of approximately $4,900 before experiencing a significant correction, dropping around 80% to a low of $880. Since that dip, ETH has been consistently making higher highs and higher lows, suggesting a potential long-term bullish trend.
I'm focusing on these key levels as important points for any macro cycle movement:

Pivot Points High Low Levels:
HH: $4,100 (Near ATH)
HH: $2,700 (Previous resistance)
HH/LL: $2,100 (Critical pivot)
LL: $1,500
LL: $880 (2022 low)

Bollinger Bands Analysis:
Currently, ETH is within the lower Bollinger Band, indicating a potential oversold condition. Historically, this has been a favorable zone for accumulation, as the price may revert to the mean once the selling pressure eases.

Potential Scenarios:

• Bullish Case:
  The most critical level to watch is $2,700. A decisive break above this level could pave the way for ETH to challenge the psychologically important $3,000 mark. If ETH can establish $3,000 as support, it would confirm a higher high and potentially signal the start of a new macro bull cycle.
  
• Consolidation Case:
  ETH may continue to trade between the $2,100 support and $2,700 resistance, forming a tightening range. This consolidation could set the stage for a significant move once resolved.
  
• Bearish Case:
  A failure to hold above $2,100 could lead to a retest of lower support levels. However, as long as ETH maintains its pattern of higher lows, the long-term bullish structure remains intact.
  

Conclusion:
The $3,000 level appears to be the key for initiating a potential macro bull cycle. Accumulation near the lower Bollinger Band could be a strategic move for those bullish on ETH's long-term prospects.

Risk Management:
Consider using the $2,100 level as a potential stop-loss for long positions, as a break below this level could invalidate the bullish thesis.


Happy Trading!