We can observe that we are on a very strong support (since July 2008) and, in my understanding, there is the possibility of a strong reversal, as traders have been draining the dollar for several months ... (a clear drain can be observed in the USD/CHF pair.)
In my understanding, big players will buy the dollar and close their positions that they opened against the US dollar.
In fact, there are no prerequisites for buying the dollar and the index of the dollar itself broke through a week earlier its strong support level ... there is one assumption - they knock out stops at longs ... and I think that major part of small traders have already entered the shorts for the dollar and accordingly the hedge funds will have work for the month of August to knock us out again.
The chart shows that there was a breakthrough, but according to the monthly chart, we see a pullback. This month this is the last day of trading so before the market closes, you can even sell the pair and make some money in short-term trading.
In general, I don't want to complicate things with all sorts of indicators and other inserts on the chart, because I support the idea of simple trading.
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I don't force anyone to trade and all positions that you open, you do it at your own risk. This post contains the opinion of the author.
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