EURUSD - The bigger picture this week
Updated
Hi Team
EURUSD is a pair I have been watching for some time now.
We have been slowly creeping up towards the descending channel resistance on the daily timeframe (marked on chart).
More than any other pair, EU tends to follow channel boundaries closely.
Last week saw the FED rake hike 75PTS.
What does this mean? It means that we can expect USD strength. This is typically not found immediately following any news release, as market volatility needs to die down. I expect that it will be the middle of this week that we see the beginning of a medium term USD Bull run.
The trades we are looking for are as follows:
1.) Scalp BUY of EU up to the sell zone indicated (I will post a more detailed analysis of this shortly)
2.) Initial Scalp SELL of EU to ascending corrective support (marked on chart - detailed analysis coming shortly)
3.) Scalp to swing SELL of EU once ascending corrective support broken
We want to capitalise as much as possible on smaller moves before entering a larger one, if we can.
NEWS:
Monday 0800 GMT - Expecting a rally of EUR from the IFO business climate assessment. This fits in with stage one.
Tuesday from 1200 GMT - Multiple moderate impact USD events, primarily the HPI. This is expected to raise, which would be bullsih for USD, and would likely coincide with EURUSD bear run.
Wednesday is a HUGE news day. Expect a degree of consolidation after initial drop, with some moderate impact news related to the Euro in the morning. The afternoon (GMT) will show high volatility, especially during and just after the FED interest rate and monetary policy decisions.
Thursday sees the annualised GDP Q2 from the US treasury, but this tends to weigh less than the initial release. Positive news would drive EU further down.
Summarily:
Expect Stage 1 Sun/Mon
Stage 2 Tues with consolidation weds am
Stage 3 Weds afternoon/Thursday - THIS is the big move
Now that I have covered the main expectations and market conditions, I will post subsequent analysis for these specific trades.
I hope you like what I do - I put a lot of effort into my analysis, and it shows - last week my ideas would have garnered any readers over 300 pips of profit.
Don't forget my FREE channel, and as always please like, comment and subscribe - I want to know your thoughts!
Be kind, Trade safe
DrBear
EURUSD is a pair I have been watching for some time now.
We have been slowly creeping up towards the descending channel resistance on the daily timeframe (marked on chart).
More than any other pair, EU tends to follow channel boundaries closely.
Last week saw the FED rake hike 75PTS.
What does this mean? It means that we can expect USD strength. This is typically not found immediately following any news release, as market volatility needs to die down. I expect that it will be the middle of this week that we see the beginning of a medium term USD Bull run.
The trades we are looking for are as follows:
1.) Scalp BUY of EU up to the sell zone indicated (I will post a more detailed analysis of this shortly)
2.) Initial Scalp SELL of EU to ascending corrective support (marked on chart - detailed analysis coming shortly)
3.) Scalp to swing SELL of EU once ascending corrective support broken
We want to capitalise as much as possible on smaller moves before entering a larger one, if we can.
NEWS:
Monday 0800 GMT - Expecting a rally of EUR from the IFO business climate assessment. This fits in with stage one.
Tuesday from 1200 GMT - Multiple moderate impact USD events, primarily the HPI. This is expected to raise, which would be bullsih for USD, and would likely coincide with EURUSD bear run.
Wednesday is a HUGE news day. Expect a degree of consolidation after initial drop, with some moderate impact news related to the Euro in the morning. The afternoon (GMT) will show high volatility, especially during and just after the FED interest rate and monetary policy decisions.
Thursday sees the annualised GDP Q2 from the US treasury, but this tends to weigh less than the initial release. Positive news would drive EU further down.
Summarily:
Expect Stage 1 Sun/Mon
Stage 2 Tues with consolidation weds am
Stage 3 Weds afternoon/Thursday - THIS is the big move
Now that I have covered the main expectations and market conditions, I will post subsequent analysis for these specific trades.
I hope you like what I do - I put a lot of effort into my analysis, and it shows - last week my ideas would have garnered any readers over 300 pips of profit.
Don't forget my FREE channel, and as always please like, comment and subscribe - I want to know your thoughts!
Be kind, Trade safe
DrBear
Note
Stage one can be found here: s3.tradingview.com/y/YatoxpjT_mid.png
Note
Stage 2 can be found here: s3.tradingview.com/g/G1ggyMxa_mid.png
Note
Stage 3 I will post closer to the time (Mid-Week)Note
Apologies - the above are screenshots. Links can be found here: Stage 1:
Stage 2:
Thanks!
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