EURUSD October Forecast

Sep 30, 2023

Trade the chart not your expectations

• EUR/USD has experienced a bearish trend since the 18th of July, moving towards a recent low of 1.04881. This is precariously close to this year’s established low at 1.04819, with expectations leaning towards a breach of this support level in the coming sessions.
  
  
• The absence of any significant retracement suggests a strong bearish momentum. Given that the price movement has been concentrated around the middle of a defined parallel channel, traders should monitor the price actions closely. Remember that every reversal takes time and few whipsaws!
  
  
• Anticipation is building around a potential break above the top line of the parallel channel. Should this occur, it could initiate a retracement towards the 1.068 level.
  
  
• Beyond the 1.068 mark, the next significant POI is at 1.073. This could act as a resistance level for any bullish retracement.
  
  
• Upon reaching the 1.068 – 1.073 region, we anticipate a pullback towards the broken channel. However, given the strong bearish undertones recently, this retest might not hold for long.
  
  
• Breaking the Year’s Low: The culmination of these factors might see the EUR/USD challenging and potentially breaching the year's low at 1.04819. Traders should be wary of this level as a breach could signal a continuation of the bearish trend, while a bounce could indicate a potential change in the market sentiment.
  

While the EUR/USD has showcased persistent bearishness since July, the coming sessions are crucial to determining its medium-term direction. A break and subsequent retest of the parallel channel, followed by a challenge to this year’s low, will be the focal points for traders.
I also believe that the gap at 1.02 will be challenged