EURUSD 27-31 Jan 2025 W5 - Weekly Analysis - EU&US Interest Rate
This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 27-31 Jan 2025 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
Weaker Dollar Sentiment: A softer tone on tariffs reduced market fears of escalating trade wars. This decreased safe-haven flows into the USD, as such rhetoric often bolsters the dollar's demand during heightened global uncertainties.
Improved Global Trade Outlook: Easing trade tensions generally supports global economic activity, benefitting risk-sensitive assets like the euro. The USD could weaken as investors seek higher-yielding opportunities outside the U.S.
Market Expectations for the Federal Reserve: If the U.S.-China trade relationship stabilizes, it could lower inflationary pressures caused by tariffs, potentially leading to a more dovish tone from the Federal Reserve. This would further weaken the dollar.
Lagging Economic Growth in Europe: While the euro could see short-term gains, its long-term strength depends on the eurozone’s ability to address its economic challenges. Structural issues in major economies like Germany and Italy could cap the euro’s upside.
Upcoming important news: EUR & USD Interest rate decision, FOMC Meeting and PCE.
Weekly Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹Internal Bearish
🔹In Swing Discount
🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2️⃣
🔹INT structure continuing bearish with iBOS following the Bearish Swing. (End of 2023 till end of 2024 was a pullback phase after the first bearish iBOS)
3️⃣
🔹After the bearish iBOS we expect a pullback, price tapped into liquidity below Nov 2022 which is above the weekly demand formed with the initiation of the bearish iBOS pullback phase.
🔹Price made a bullish CHoCH which indicates that the liquidity was enough as per previous week analysis to initiate a pullback phase for the bearish iBOS.
🔹Price currently looking to target the liquidity built up during September 2024 and maybe reaching the Weekly supply zone (In INT structure Premium).
🔹Expectations of price to continue bullish to sweep the liquidity/mitigate supply zone while putting in consideration that we can have a pullback after the bullish CHoCH to weekly newly demand formed.
Daily Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2️⃣
🔹Following the Bearish Swing BOS, INT Structure continuing bearish approaching the weekly demand zone.
3️⃣
🔹After the failure to close below the Weak INT Low, price continued bullish sweeping the liquidity above Dec 30 and currently mitigating a Daily supply zone within the INT Structure Premium Zone.
🔹The current Daily supply zone could provide an intraday pullback to daily demand formed to continue bullish and target the INT High as this is the weekly liquidity currently to be targeted. Also, I put in consideration that the structure is bearish and we should be continuing down to target the Weak INT low. But I want to see more development on LTF to confirm this scenario.
🔹Expectations is set to continue bullish with cautious on the bearish scenario.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Swing Continuation after BOS
2️⃣
🔹INT structure continuing bullish after the bullish BOS. We expect that at anytime the Swing Pullback will start.
🔹Currently price at a Daily Supply Zone that can initiate at least INT Structure Pullback and may extend to Swing Pullback to at least Swing EQ (50%)/Daily and Weekly Demand.
3️⃣
🔹Expectation is price to initiate a pullback for the Bullish INT structure and then continue bullish from demand to target the Daily INT High/Weekly Liquidity.
🔹More development required on LTFs/Intraday Analysis.
Economic Events for the Week
- Market Sentiment
- Weekly Chart Analysis
- Daily Chart Analysis
- 4H Chart Analysis
- Economic Events for the Week
Market Sentiment
Weaker Dollar Sentiment: A softer tone on tariffs reduced market fears of escalating trade wars. This decreased safe-haven flows into the USD, as such rhetoric often bolsters the dollar's demand during heightened global uncertainties.
Improved Global Trade Outlook: Easing trade tensions generally supports global economic activity, benefitting risk-sensitive assets like the euro. The USD could weaken as investors seek higher-yielding opportunities outside the U.S.
Market Expectations for the Federal Reserve: If the U.S.-China trade relationship stabilizes, it could lower inflationary pressures caused by tariffs, potentially leading to a more dovish tone from the Federal Reserve. This would further weaken the dollar.
Lagging Economic Growth in Europe: While the euro could see short-term gains, its long-term strength depends on the eurozone’s ability to address its economic challenges. Structural issues in major economies like Germany and Italy could cap the euro’s upside.
Upcoming important news: EUR & USD Interest rate decision, FOMC Meeting and PCE.
Weekly Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹Internal Bearish
🔹In Swing Discount
🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2️⃣
🔹INT structure continuing bearish with iBOS following the Bearish Swing. (End of 2023 till end of 2024 was a pullback phase after the first bearish iBOS)
3️⃣
🔹After the bearish iBOS we expect a pullback, price tapped into liquidity below Nov 2022 which is above the weekly demand formed with the initiation of the bearish iBOS pullback phase.
🔹Price made a bullish CHoCH which indicates that the liquidity was enough as per previous week analysis to initiate a pullback phase for the bearish iBOS.
🔹Price currently looking to target the liquidity built up during September 2024 and maybe reaching the Weekly supply zone (In INT structure Premium).
🔹Expectations of price to continue bullish to sweep the liquidity/mitigate supply zone while putting in consideration that we can have a pullback after the bullish CHoCH to weekly newly demand formed.
Daily Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2️⃣
🔹Following the Bearish Swing BOS, INT Structure continuing bearish approaching the weekly demand zone.
3️⃣
🔹After the failure to close below the Weak INT Low, price continued bullish sweeping the liquidity above Dec 30 and currently mitigating a Daily supply zone within the INT Structure Premium Zone.
🔹The current Daily supply zone could provide an intraday pullback to daily demand formed to continue bullish and target the INT High as this is the weekly liquidity currently to be targeted. Also, I put in consideration that the structure is bearish and we should be continuing down to target the Weak INT low. But I want to see more development on LTF to confirm this scenario.
🔹Expectations is set to continue bullish with cautious on the bearish scenario.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Swing Continuation after BOS
2️⃣
🔹INT structure continuing bullish after the bullish BOS. We expect that at anytime the Swing Pullback will start.
🔹Currently price at a Daily Supply Zone that can initiate at least INT Structure Pullback and may extend to Swing Pullback to at least Swing EQ (50%)/Daily and Weekly Demand.
3️⃣
🔹Expectation is price to initiate a pullback for the Bullish INT structure and then continue bullish from demand to target the Daily INT High/Weekly Liquidity.
🔹More development required on LTFs/Intraday Analysis.
Economic Events for the Week
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