EURUSD - IN ANTICIPATION OF A POSITIVE PCE REPORT (TARGET 1.081)
Updated
The upcoming release of the Core PCE Price Index, a key inflation metric closely monitored by the Fed, is scheduled for 13:30 GMT. Despite not anticipating major surprises due to its inclusion in the recent GDP report, investors will closely examine this data along with December's Personal Spending and Personal Income figures for deeper economic insights. While positive outcomes in spending and income could bolster the USD, disappointing results might signal weakening consumption, potentially impacting the USD's immediate performance.
The previous retail sales data was extremely bullish. Retail Sales and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) often show a positive correlation, both reflecting consumer spending trends. While Retail Sales focus on goods, PCE covers a broader range including services. Both indicators are influenced by similar economic factors like employment rates and consumer confidence, making them crucial for understanding economic health. However, their scope differs, with PCE providing a more comprehensive view of total consumer spending. Traders should monitor these metrics for insights into consumer behaviour and overall economic conditions.
Based on these macro assumptions I'll explore the bullish outcome for the dollar:
What is on the chart? (Follow the steps)
1) We have our first accumulation structure which was followed by a breakout and also a market structure shift. This accumulation was fuelled by a 4H FVG.
2) When paired with the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator you'll notice more downside confirmations such as a break of both the daily Kijun and Tenkan, a Tenkan/Kijun crossover and a Kumo twist. Thirdly the weekly Tenkan was broken and retested. These are all major signals.
3) We're currently still range bound with the daily 0.786 level as support that was perfectly respected. This level is strengthened by the daily Kumo.
4) I am relying on the 4 Hour order block as the final resistance before the potential positive PCE data release which would be final blow. Price should continue its downfall towards sellside liquidity.
Here are some extra charts to strengthen the bias:
As usual, happy trading and have great day!! :)
The previous retail sales data was extremely bullish. Retail Sales and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) often show a positive correlation, both reflecting consumer spending trends. While Retail Sales focus on goods, PCE covers a broader range including services. Both indicators are influenced by similar economic factors like employment rates and consumer confidence, making them crucial for understanding economic health. However, their scope differs, with PCE providing a more comprehensive view of total consumer spending. Traders should monitor these metrics for insights into consumer behaviour and overall economic conditions.
Based on these macro assumptions I'll explore the bullish outcome for the dollar:
What is on the chart? (Follow the steps)
1) We have our first accumulation structure which was followed by a breakout and also a market structure shift. This accumulation was fuelled by a 4H FVG.
2) When paired with the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator you'll notice more downside confirmations such as a break of both the daily Kijun and Tenkan, a Tenkan/Kijun crossover and a Kumo twist. Thirdly the weekly Tenkan was broken and retested. These are all major signals.
3) We're currently still range bound with the daily 0.786 level as support that was perfectly respected. This level is strengthened by the daily Kumo.
4) I am relying on the 4 Hour order block as the final resistance before the potential positive PCE data release which would be final blow. Price should continue its downfall towards sellside liquidity.
Here are some extra charts to strengthen the bias:
As usual, happy trading and have great day!! :)
Order cancelled
Mixed sentiment. Was really relying on the PCE to outperform. No trade today from my end.
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