EURUSD - Long-term & Short-Term Analysis
I have got a lot of request about EURUSD so, I would like to point out some areas where the price can make some more expected short-term movements.
Firstly, the price has been on a short-term ranging range. It has drifted between 1.11 and 1.12 but in overall, the mid-term or even long-term trend is downwards so, currently, more favorable are the sell trades.
Even the short-term sell trades are a bit risky because of the bigger picture:
As you see, the price action has drawn some bullish patterns on the bullish retracement area. We have a bullish chart pattern called Falling Wedge on the Fibonacci golden ratio of 62%. The market has come pretty heavily down from the 2018 top and currently, it trades just around that mentioned Fibonacci level. So, in the bigger picture, a breakout above the Falling Wedge trendline will be a sign that the current correction from 2018 high could find its end and the bullish view starts to come back, slowly but still, let's search some possible short-term bounce areas.
Short-term trade possibilities
I have marked two areas for buying and selling. Let's start with the selling area.
SELL
Selling area stays around the round number 1.12000. There are several price action criteria which match each other in one red box:
1. The trendline should act as resistance, the first touch 24. Sept. in 2018 and the second touch 10. Jan. in 2018 pulled from the wicks.
2. Previously worked resistance level (orange line)
3. 2018 Low which now becomes resistance level
4. Daily EMA 50
5. The round number 1.12000
6. The trend is your friend and the current mid-term trend is downwards.
The upper trendline is one part from the bullish chart pattern Falling Wedge, watch it really precisely! If the Daily candle gets a close above of it then this pattern should start to work and the bearish bias could change slightly into bullish.
If the price reaches into the red selling box then you should definitely wait for our seventh criteria:
7.* Bearish candlestick pattern on the red box( Shooting Star, Evening Star, Bearish Engulfing, bearish Railway Tracks). Because of the fundamentals and because of the technical aspects we need to see bearish candlestick patterns to be more accurate. Bearish candlestick pattern should occur on the 4H and much more reliable would be a bearish candlestick pattern on the Daily timeframe!
BUY
The nearest solid buying area stays around 1.10500:
1. Multiple ABC Equal Waves are pointed into the green box.
2. Multiple Fibonacci Extensions are pointed exactly into the green box.
3. The short-term minor trendline runs through the green box and makes a crossing area.
4. Semi-round number 1.10500 should also play a role in this area, not so significant but still worth to mention it.
This is a much riskier trade because it is a counter trend trade. It is like a trying to catch a falling knife, you can catch it but sometimes it could hurt you pretty heavily. On the selling area, we have to wait for a bearish candlestick pattern on the 4H or on the Daily then here is definitely only one option:
5.* Wait for a bullish candlestick pattern on the Daily timeframe (Hammer, Morning Star, bullish Engulfing, bullish Railway Tracks)
Feel free to support my effort post by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You!
Have a nice weekend,
Cheers!
Firstly, the price has been on a short-term ranging range. It has drifted between 1.11 and 1.12 but in overall, the mid-term or even long-term trend is downwards so, currently, more favorable are the sell trades.
Even the short-term sell trades are a bit risky because of the bigger picture:
As you see, the price action has drawn some bullish patterns on the bullish retracement area. We have a bullish chart pattern called Falling Wedge on the Fibonacci golden ratio of 62%. The market has come pretty heavily down from the 2018 top and currently, it trades just around that mentioned Fibonacci level. So, in the bigger picture, a breakout above the Falling Wedge trendline will be a sign that the current correction from 2018 high could find its end and the bullish view starts to come back, slowly but still, let's search some possible short-term bounce areas.
Short-term trade possibilities
I have marked two areas for buying and selling. Let's start with the selling area.
SELL
Selling area stays around the round number 1.12000. There are several price action criteria which match each other in one red box:
1. The trendline should act as resistance, the first touch 24. Sept. in 2018 and the second touch 10. Jan. in 2018 pulled from the wicks.
2. Previously worked resistance level (orange line)
3. 2018 Low which now becomes resistance level
4. Daily EMA 50
5. The round number 1.12000
6. The trend is your friend and the current mid-term trend is downwards.
The upper trendline is one part from the bullish chart pattern Falling Wedge, watch it really precisely! If the Daily candle gets a close above of it then this pattern should start to work and the bearish bias could change slightly into bullish.
If the price reaches into the red selling box then you should definitely wait for our seventh criteria:
7.* Bearish candlestick pattern on the red box( Shooting Star, Evening Star, Bearish Engulfing, bearish Railway Tracks). Because of the fundamentals and because of the technical aspects we need to see bearish candlestick patterns to be more accurate. Bearish candlestick pattern should occur on the 4H and much more reliable would be a bearish candlestick pattern on the Daily timeframe!
BUY
The nearest solid buying area stays around 1.10500:
1. Multiple ABC Equal Waves are pointed into the green box.
2. Multiple Fibonacci Extensions are pointed exactly into the green box.
3. The short-term minor trendline runs through the green box and makes a crossing area.
4. Semi-round number 1.10500 should also play a role in this area, not so significant but still worth to mention it.
This is a much riskier trade because it is a counter trend trade. It is like a trying to catch a falling knife, you can catch it but sometimes it could hurt you pretty heavily. On the selling area, we have to wait for a bearish candlestick pattern on the 4H or on the Daily then here is definitely only one option:
5.* Wait for a bullish candlestick pattern on the Daily timeframe (Hammer, Morning Star, bullish Engulfing, bullish Railway Tracks)
Feel free to support my effort post by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You!
Have a nice weekend,
Cheers!
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