Fed Funds Rate- Interesting patterns
Updated
Was just taking a look at the rate and noticed the EMA. 200 EMA is currently at 1.71 with the 10 day at 1.86.
Black horizontal lines are approximate time when 10 day crossed below 200 day. Purple are the listed start of a recession.
Just found this interesting and especially since it's on 15 bp away from crossing to the downside again.
You'll also notice that it crosses back down within 6-12 months of crossing to the upside (in the last 30 years).
1977-1985 are exceptions to the 6-12 months and did not cross to the downside around a recession (recession of 1980 and 81-82 fell in between)
Take this how you'd like, but it's definitely a good idea to at least take something (whether bullish or bearish) from this.
Black horizontal lines are approximate time when 10 day crossed below 200 day. Purple are the listed start of a recession.
Just found this interesting and especially since it's on 15 bp away from crossing to the downside again.
You'll also notice that it crosses back down within 6-12 months of crossing to the upside (in the last 30 years).
1977-1985 are exceptions to the 6-12 months and did not cross to the downside around a recession (recession of 1980 and 81-82 fell in between)
Take this how you'd like, but it's definitely a good idea to at least take something (whether bullish or bearish) from this.
Note
Full look from 1954 on.
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