6/21/24 - $figs - Interesting <$4.5, obvious mid $3s
Updated
6/21/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
FIGS
Interesting <$4.5, obvious mid 3s
Another oscillator i've traded for some time. bought a small token 10 bps stake this AM to keep it on my pinkie toe in the pool watchlist (which is an upgrade from a watchlist lol bc theoretically there's *some* skin in the game).
the way i think about this one is that the valuation is probably only an obvious buy in the $2-3/shr region. why? there's a ton of dilution and without this, they're not really scaling gross profit w/ the current state of opex. so you lose $3 of GP dollars YoY (in the last Q) but also improve opex by $1. that's a tough situation.
what do i like?
if we use 15c of EPS power in '25 on 30x you're at $4.5. ofc there's a discount rate we need to apply, but realistically that's a fair bogey half way thru the year today as stands with decent results. this is why i say it's more obvious in the 3s handle.
but this is NOT a dead brand. it's in the ever growing healthcare and science industries - which are growth. it's the
LULU of healthcare clothes. someone w/ a more scaled opex structure buys this pretty obviously (already at this px). which is why i think a fair place to start nibbling is here in the low 
4S and i start to size up in the high 3s and i'm at a max size in the low 3s (if we ever actually get there - i'd doubt it - but always think ahead so you just execute when we get there, not sht yourself). max size for this type of co for me is maybe 1.5-2%, won't be a mega position as stands.
flagging, tho, on today's move bc it's getting pretty unreasonably beat up and probably more of a factor reason than anything.
have a good weekend fam. lmk if u see it differently
oh, the google trends look pretty solid (*check*)
trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&
V
FIGSInteresting <$4.5, obvious mid 3s
Another oscillator i've traded for some time. bought a small token 10 bps stake this AM to keep it on my pinkie toe in the pool watchlist (which is an upgrade from a watchlist lol bc theoretically there's *some* skin in the game).
the way i think about this one is that the valuation is probably only an obvious buy in the $2-3/shr region. why? there's a ton of dilution and without this, they're not really scaling gross profit w/ the current state of opex. so you lose $3 of GP dollars YoY (in the last Q) but also improve opex by $1. that's a tough situation.
what do i like?
if we use 15c of EPS power in '25 on 30x you're at $4.5. ofc there's a discount rate we need to apply, but realistically that's a fair bogey half way thru the year today as stands with decent results. this is why i say it's more obvious in the 3s handle.
but this is NOT a dead brand. it's in the ever growing healthcare and science industries - which are growth. it's the
LULU of healthcare clothes. someone w/ a more scaled opex structure buys this pretty obviously (already at this px). which is why i think a fair place to start nibbling is here in the low 4S and i start to size up in the high 3s and i'm at a max size in the low 3s (if we ever actually get there - i'd doubt it - but always think ahead so you just execute when we get there, not sht yourself). max size for this type of co for me is maybe 1.5-2%, won't be a mega position as stands.flagging, tho, on today's move bc it's getting pretty unreasonably beat up and probably more of a factor reason than anything.
have a good weekend fam. lmk if u see it differently
oh, the google trends look pretty solid (*check*)
trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&
V
Note
not getting greedy. i'm out here above $5 for about 15%. would be interested in re engaging at the above logic once again. prefer LULU for a better MT less distraction hold for the discretionary part of the book.enjoy
V
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