AEX: the bottom came early!
Updated
I expected a low per 7 August based on my turndates pointing to 10/11 August and other short term techniques pointing to 7 August. However, we got a 3 August low and a higher low per 7 August to the 38,2% Fibonacci level at the opening of the AEX around 09:00 o'clock. I considered this possible which can be read in one of the comments from 5 August in my previous article.
So, 3 August was also a bottom date (which I also said in my previous article) and after the fact, I know understand why it was THE LOW. To bad I didn't understand it earlier, but the cycle that gave me this date was more important than the other ones. Still, I see the 10/11 August date as a hard move and looking at what we are doing (we are building a base while America keeps grinding higher), it might be a hard move up and we top out... That is my thinking for now. This is also argumented for by my August 9 date (which falls in the weekend...) that points to a top and a drop afterwards.
So, in short, this is what I think for now, but as always, I let the signals lead me and based on that I trade:
- Upmove Monday 10/Tuesday 11
- Target 567,50 (61,8% retracement from the top on 21 July).
- Down afterwards. I have some dates for August, but nothing special that makes me say 'THIS IS IT'. September and October look more promissing. ;)
When I see this all happening , I will try an AEX P August option (atm or slightly otm) one more time. My previous option was in some nice profits, but in the end I sold it with a loss because the game changed and I had to change my plan. Stay fluid, don't let bias rule you. These are important lessons I have learned from the past! Going broke twice... These are humbling experiences I can guarantee you! ;)
If not, than I stay patient and we may be already underway in the search of a top according to my 'Editor's Pick' article in which September gives us the high and than a big drop. This still seems very possible.
I don't know if people are aware, but if somehow we see a totally different scenario and we continue to go UP UP UP even in september, than my alternative scenario goes in play: inflation which makes the stockmarket and gold/silver rocket UPUPUP. The crash will come later than in 2021. For now, I am happy I bought physical silver (coins) in 2017 and 2018. They are already at a 60% profit! I expect way higher silver prices, no doubt about it...
Enjoy!
Shalom, Im
PS: like and follow me if you think this is good content.
So, 3 August was also a bottom date (which I also said in my previous article) and after the fact, I know understand why it was THE LOW. To bad I didn't understand it earlier, but the cycle that gave me this date was more important than the other ones. Still, I see the 10/11 August date as a hard move and looking at what we are doing (we are building a base while America keeps grinding higher), it might be a hard move up and we top out... That is my thinking for now. This is also argumented for by my August 9 date (which falls in the weekend...) that points to a top and a drop afterwards.
So, in short, this is what I think for now, but as always, I let the signals lead me and based on that I trade:
- Upmove Monday 10/Tuesday 11
- Target 567,50 (61,8% retracement from the top on 21 July).
- Down afterwards. I have some dates for August, but nothing special that makes me say 'THIS IS IT'. September and October look more promissing. ;)
When I see this all happening , I will try an AEX P August option (atm or slightly otm) one more time. My previous option was in some nice profits, but in the end I sold it with a loss because the game changed and I had to change my plan. Stay fluid, don't let bias rule you. These are important lessons I have learned from the past! Going broke twice... These are humbling experiences I can guarantee you! ;)
If not, than I stay patient and we may be already underway in the search of a top according to my 'Editor's Pick' article in which September gives us the high and than a big drop. This still seems very possible.
I don't know if people are aware, but if somehow we see a totally different scenario and we continue to go UP UP UP even in september, than my alternative scenario goes in play: inflation which makes the stockmarket and gold/silver rocket UPUPUP. The crash will come later than in 2021. For now, I am happy I bought physical silver (coins) in 2017 and 2018. They are already at a 60% profit! I expect way higher silver prices, no doubt about it...
Enjoy!
Shalom, Im
PS: like and follow me if you think this is good content.
Trade closed: target reached
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