Forex preview: NFP, Powell’s testimony, and BoC and ECB decision
The key events for the week are concentrated mainly between Wednesday and Friday.
In the United States, the focus will be on January jobs data and speeches by Federal Reserve officials. The most important of the bunch is of course Federal Reserve Chair Powell two-day testimony in Congress on monetary policy starting Wednesday. Traders will look for cues regarding the future trajectory of monetary policy, with special attention paid to the Q&A session following Powell's opening remarks.
Friday will bring the release of Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data, with expectations of a 188,000 job increase in February. This would be a significant drop from the 353,000 jobs added in January. JOLTs job openings are anticipated to fall to 8.9 million in January after two consecutive months of increases (Wednesday).
In Canada, the Bank of Canada is anticipated to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time on Thursday.
In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep rates unchanged on Thursday. ECB members continue to advocate for a patient stance, with the consensus being to wait for Q1 2024 wage data before considering a rate cut in June, aligning with current market expectations.
In the United Kingdom, all eyes will be on Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt's pre-election budget on Wednesday, which is expected to include tax cuts, which according to the guardian “... runs the risk of getting an adverse reaction from the markets which would snuff out what is still a lukewarm and tentative economic recovery.”
In the United States, the focus will be on January jobs data and speeches by Federal Reserve officials. The most important of the bunch is of course Federal Reserve Chair Powell two-day testimony in Congress on monetary policy starting Wednesday. Traders will look for cues regarding the future trajectory of monetary policy, with special attention paid to the Q&A session following Powell's opening remarks.
Friday will bring the release of Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data, with expectations of a 188,000 job increase in February. This would be a significant drop from the 353,000 jobs added in January. JOLTs job openings are anticipated to fall to 8.9 million in January after two consecutive months of increases (Wednesday).
In Canada, the Bank of Canada is anticipated to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time on Thursday.
In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep rates unchanged on Thursday. ECB members continue to advocate for a patient stance, with the consensus being to wait for Q1 2024 wage data before considering a rate cut in June, aligning with current market expectations.
In the United Kingdom, all eyes will be on Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt's pre-election budget on Wednesday, which is expected to include tax cuts, which according to the guardian “... runs the risk of getting an adverse reaction from the markets which would snuff out what is still a lukewarm and tentative economic recovery.”
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