GBP/USD advances by another 150 points

Sep 18, 2017

Morning outlook - GBP/USD advances by another 150 points

As it was expected, the Pound continued to appreciate against the US Dollar, following a speech delivered by the External BOE MPC Member Gertjan Vlieghe on Friday.

At the moment, the currency rate is moving horizontally in a limbo between the monthly R3 at 1.3701 from the top and the monthly R2 at 1.3485 from the bottom.

However, it should be noted that space between the current market price and the above two barriers amounts approximately to 100 pips in both directions.

Most probably, the pair is going to continue to move horizontally until the moment when Governor Carney will start answering questions at the Central Banking Lecture hosted by the IMF at 15:00 GMT.

Taking into account previous market reaction on similar two events last week, another sharp surge is likely to follow.

Sep 19, 2017

Note

GBP/USD falls as Carney speaks

As it was expected, a steady horizontal movement represented an anticipation of the speech that was delivered by Governor Carney yesterday.

On the one hand, it did not let to the anticipated appreciation of the Pound. But on the other hand, the plunge of the rate was expectedly neutralized by a combination of the 55-hour SMA and the monthly R2 at 1.3485.

At the moment, the currency rate is not facing any resistance on its way up until the monthly R3, which is located at the 1.3701 level.

In contrast, the opposite direction contains a whole package of technical indicators, including the weekly PP and the approaching 100-hour SMA, which altogether form a combined support level.

Accordingly, the Sterling is likely to continue to pave the path to the top.

Sep 20, 2017

Note

GBP/USD forms minor symmetrical triangle

Unfortunately for the Pound, previous trading session signified the end of an upside momentum that guided movement of the pair over the last four days. On hourly chart it is easy to note how the 55-hour SMA managed to neutralize multiple attempts to break to the top.

However, from the opposite direction the fall of the rate was similarly constrained by the monthly R2 at 1.3485.

In result of this consolidation the currency pair is now fluctuating in a minor symmetrical triangle whose breakout point in terms of time coincides with announcement of the Federal Funds Rate.

The further move of the rate would greatly depend on statement that will be made by the Fed.

On the other hand, there is a need to take into account that the above pattern is likely to broken a little bit earlier due to reaction on release of data on the UK Retail Sales.

Sep 21, 2017

Note

GBP/USD fails to pass 1.3485 mark again

In accordance with expectations, a release of much better than expected data on the UK Retail Sales led to a premature breakout from a symmetrical triangle.

However, the subsequent Federal Funds Rate announcement dragged the pair in the opposite direction. For the third day in raw the fall of the rate was stopped at the monthly R2, which is located at the 1.3485 level.

Today the currency pair is not expected to make any significant moves, as it is squeezed between two combined barriers that are likely to neutralize any attempts of a breakout.

From the top it is constrained by the 55- and 100-hour SMA, while from the bottom by the above monthly R2 plus the weekly PP at 1.3456.

But from a daily perspective, the buck is expected to continue to gradually recover against the Pound.

Sep 22, 2017

Note

GBP/USD confirms resistance at 1.3600

Although the pair managed to break through a combination of the 55- and 100-hour SMAs yesterday, the surge was stopped a little bit below the 1.3600 mark, thus confirming an existence of a strong barrier in that area.

It appears that during this whole trading week movement of the exchange rate was guided by some sort of rectangle pattern whose resistance line was located near the 1.3600 level and the support line near the 1.3475 level.

On the one hand, there is a high chance that the pair will spend the rest of the day in this established formation, as it faces no significant pressure from technical indicators.

On the other hand, a speech that will be delivered by PM May about post-Brexit relations with the EU is likely to have a notable impact on the value of Pound.