Junior Gold Miners: ZOOM OUT

Nov 17, 2020

Junior gold miners have been consolidating in a tight flag above a major breakout level (around $50) that represented a price ceiling since 2013.

Long term ranges precede high probability big winners.

There could be a deeper shake out in play, but I ultimately expect prices to be supported above the 200 day moving average which currently sits at ~$48 and eventually breakout toward $70 per share.

The question for a trader/manager is not whether the price of GDXJ will trade higher or not. It's a question of opportunity cost. Do I hold the asset while it potentially does nothing and continues consolidating while other markets do well? Or do I wait for a proper signal and pay a premium? I'd rather wait for a strong signal and pay up.

FYI: I used the 7D time frame just to fit everything on the screen

Nov 25, 2020

Note

Yesterday GDCJ ripped through stops and had a significant breakdown. With price now below the key breakout level and the 200 day average, I wouldn't even think about buying until we see a reversal on a *weekly* basis back above $50.

Dec 1, 2020

Note

Now back above the 200dma after an undercut of the 200d: I went long gold futures at 1780

Dec 2, 2020

Note

Solid rebound off the 200d and a probable bottom in place. I remain long gold futures and have added this morning with options on gold futures (GC December 28 at $1815 per oz).

I do not have a position in GDXJ but I would if it wasn't for my preference in holding futures.

Notice price has now gotten above the key $50 level as well.

Jan 5, 2021

Note

Precious metals investors.. this is the real deal.