$GME - August runs are coming
If you're already following me, you know the drill. It's about time for the quarterly runs for GME and Meme Stonks in general.
I've identified +1 more mostly accurate date where some meme stocks (but not all) actually run.
The dates you want are as follows:
-These two dates are a set. There will be a decent single day run on one of these two dates. I personally think it's August 2. The only way this moves to Aug 8 is if some big market event happens between now and then. If you're gonna play this, at least don't get FD's and go at least +1 week out further. The moment you see the run happen, take profits from your long calls and get puts 2 weeks out while the IV is still hot for calls. If you wait and buy after the call IV and prices cool down, you're gonna be buying puts at not so very nice prices. You want to buy the reversal just before it happens, not after.
*02 August (Most Likely)
or
*08 August (Less Likely)
or
both (Unlikely)
-This is the regular GME quarterly cycle run we've talked about here since last year. The behavior is always slightly different but the critical part of the trade is always the same. Around the 23'rd give or take a day or two, GME will pop to something like $40 or $45 or more for a few days and then drop. Since everyone is aware of this at this point, i'd expect NO run on 23-26 as everyone's gonna be saturating weekly FD's instead of 2w or 4w out. This will cause the usual run just before close on Friday 26 Aug and a run into the next week due to call gamma having to be hedged in the last moments of the market. Then the T+1 from option settlement hits everyone on Monday but it really doesn't and it hits the market on Tuesday as per my previous DD on market mechanics.
If you're going to play this one, be safe, due to degens playing FD's e.g same week expiring calls, the price may crab to kill everyone's FD calls and will instead move the week after.
*23-25 August (Likely)
*30 Aug (Likely)
How i'm gonna play this event?
-Aug 2 or 8: I'm a degenerate, so i'm going to get OTM FD's for Aug 2 on market open on the same day.
-Aug 23-25 or *30 Aug: Been burned by the micro changes in these runs a few times so i'm getting OTM calls on the 19'th of Aug expiring around 9 of Sept.
Additional Info: I have weird signals from DTCC's swaps indicating that this year's September 16 ish and next year's March and April have A LOT of $$$ expiring in swaps. I do not know what this means or what it will do to the markets. I have leap calls out to 2024 that are ITM to ride those dates in case something crazy good happens. That's why i'm not extending these August calls to September's OPEX and SLD period. I don't know what's gonna happen in September, but i just know something will. I don't know the direction.
Here's an old version of what i wrote that explains my thoughts above.
reddit.com/r/FWFBThinkTank/comments/vp36i5/heres_actual_gme_amc_xrt_bbby_swaps_actual/
Keep in mind the 23-30 Aug run applies to most meme stocks. I'm onboard with GME and BBBY on this since only the few top meme stonks tend to move both on the start of the month and near the end of the month. I don't do AMC.
WARNING: I wouldn't buy anything right now as it's the period where stocks get knocked down. If you're going to play the above, wait till the last day before doing so. Buying from now will just burn a LOT of theta.
NFA
I've identified +1 more mostly accurate date where some meme stocks (but not all) actually run.
The dates you want are as follows:
-These two dates are a set. There will be a decent single day run on one of these two dates. I personally think it's August 2. The only way this moves to Aug 8 is if some big market event happens between now and then. If you're gonna play this, at least don't get FD's and go at least +1 week out further. The moment you see the run happen, take profits from your long calls and get puts 2 weeks out while the IV is still hot for calls. If you wait and buy after the call IV and prices cool down, you're gonna be buying puts at not so very nice prices. You want to buy the reversal just before it happens, not after.
*02 August (Most Likely)
or
*08 August (Less Likely)
or
both (Unlikely)
-This is the regular GME quarterly cycle run we've talked about here since last year. The behavior is always slightly different but the critical part of the trade is always the same. Around the 23'rd give or take a day or two, GME will pop to something like $40 or $45 or more for a few days and then drop. Since everyone is aware of this at this point, i'd expect NO run on 23-26 as everyone's gonna be saturating weekly FD's instead of 2w or 4w out. This will cause the usual run just before close on Friday 26 Aug and a run into the next week due to call gamma having to be hedged in the last moments of the market. Then the T+1 from option settlement hits everyone on Monday but it really doesn't and it hits the market on Tuesday as per my previous DD on market mechanics.
If you're going to play this one, be safe, due to degens playing FD's e.g same week expiring calls, the price may crab to kill everyone's FD calls and will instead move the week after.
*23-25 August (Likely)
*30 Aug (Likely)
How i'm gonna play this event?
-Aug 2 or 8: I'm a degenerate, so i'm going to get OTM FD's for Aug 2 on market open on the same day.
-Aug 23-25 or *30 Aug: Been burned by the micro changes in these runs a few times so i'm getting OTM calls on the 19'th of Aug expiring around 9 of Sept.
Additional Info: I have weird signals from DTCC's swaps indicating that this year's September 16 ish and next year's March and April have A LOT of $$$ expiring in swaps. I do not know what this means or what it will do to the markets. I have leap calls out to 2024 that are ITM to ride those dates in case something crazy good happens. That's why i'm not extending these August calls to September's OPEX and SLD period. I don't know what's gonna happen in September, but i just know something will. I don't know the direction.
Here's an old version of what i wrote that explains my thoughts above.
reddit.com/r/FWFBThinkTank/comments/vp36i5/heres_actual_gme_amc_xrt_bbby_swaps_actual/
Keep in mind the 23-30 Aug run applies to most meme stocks. I'm onboard with GME and BBBY on this since only the few top meme stonks tend to move both on the start of the month and near the end of the month. I don't do AMC.
WARNING: I wouldn't buy anything right now as it's the period where stocks get knocked down. If you're going to play the above, wait till the last day before doing so. Buying from now will just burn a LOT of theta.
NFA
Note
Today's vix is pretty elevated and it's just above the levels i'm comfortable with. It may indicate that the main move has ocurred yesterday and is done (or not).I'm keeping my eyes open on this one as i may need to exit my position (or not). I'm not sure. The move may have been a day early e.g yesterday (or not). I can't tell.
My only indicator here is vix. If it's spiking, we're in a difficult situation. I may take profits today and go bearish on the market (not meme stocks).
I'll keep you updated, please be safe with your trade.
Note
Here we go.Be safe. Take profits when you feel like it. This is a risky trade.
Trade closed manually
I'm exiting this trade. Looks like the run ocurred 1 day early and may not go any more today. In November's version of this, it ran 12-25% in the last 2-3 trading hours of the session.The volume may be delayed similarly this time.
Good luck if you want to chase this any more. I'm out.
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