Investec has had a stellar run since bottoming in March 2020. Group results for the six months ended 30 September 2022 (1H2023) saw revenue growth of 18.9% which benefitted from rising global interest rates. Investec also had a positive outlook for 2H2023 and I will be keeping a lookout for trading statements and updates as the company approaches its financial year end.
While it is difficult to keep track of all key fundamental drivers, one thing we can certainly do is look at the charts for clues about the future.
The market structure for Investec is textbook Elliott Wave. Wave (1) was a small rally and wave (3) was extended, followed by a strong correction for wave (4). Investec is currently in the fifth and final wave of an impulse advance and as much as the share can keep going higher, one needs to exercise caution now.
The MACD has yet to make a new high relative to wave (3) and looks to be decelerating, creating a potential bearish divergence setup. It is too early to call a top but there are early signs that it is close.
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