$KO - Coca Cola as the next dump indicator
Updated
I'm doing nothing special here, just using KO's dividends date as a market dump indicator.
Starting 11-21 days before Coca Cola dividends, the market begins to dump like clockwork. Taking previous dumps in consideration, we see that the dump amount is around 9% for KO which is A LOT for a "stable" company like them.
In this following dump to come i have a price target of $56.3 ish or around 9% from today's $60.63. Similarly based on the incoming KO price dump, i obviously expect the rest of the market to do the same as the dump is market wide after all. My arbitrary price target for SPY is around $360 give or take $5 bucks by the 5'th of Dec, the same applies for the rest of the market as a bottom to this incoming dump.
In the coming days (15/11/2022 - 18/11/2022), we might see a fast SPY pump to $412 or $61.6 for KO as the market prepares to reverse, but i wholeheartedly believe another big dump is coming due to that this week is Opex week and next week's Tuesday is GME's quarterly cycle price run date. For the past several cycles now there's always been a big market event starting right on the dot either on Monday or Tuesday that cause the entire market to go to hell just as everything starts to pump and squeeze. Since next week on Monday and Tuesday we're supposed to see the action from this Friday's option expiries & exercises/sell/buys settling, we're supposed to see big volume on the high IV/Gamma meme stocks, but you can be certain that kind of volume is gonna get crushed as is usual by some freak market event that will magically appear early next week.
I'd like to be more positive about next week and the whole market in general and specifically meme stocks, but unfortunately this is the new reality i've accustomed myself to. Funnily enough i've found a guy that was able to explain the above but in terms of dealer positioning twitter.com/WizOfOps/status/1592507416813670402?s=20&t=36nFCkOhKQ33kCN_2CUkzA which confirms (in my own mind anyway) next week's events. I think the recent micro pump of everything is the effect of retail long puts short calls and the inverse relationship with those vs BD's and hedging e.g you buy a put, that forces someone to hedge it and the market may move against you as more people do so forcing more hedging. So if you bought a GME put, though counter intutitive, it's possible to see a short term price increase even though selling a put should traditionally have this effect and not buying a put... So yeah i think things are a bit nuts right where i have to come out and say that "buying a put can make stonks go up..."
Swaps
Going through the latest swaps, there's literally been minimal action for quite a while now. When there's been sustained crappy low volume trades for a while and no big trades or multiple trades coming in, this is usually a sign that more of the same is about to come e.g more dumping.
OCC Hedging Volume
Some stocks like BYND and a little bit GME showed some promise on last Friday into Monday 11/11/2022 with a decent increase in the hedging balance for BBBY, GME, BYND and a few other stocks, but nothing significantly big enough that would indicate a price run yet. I'm monitoring EOD OCC hedging vol data and hoping for a spike that would indicate a price run, but so far nothing. At least there hasn't been a drop in the hedging balance, so there's a little bit of hope left... but not a lot.
Lending Fees & Swap Trade Timing
I'm going through lending fees for certain stocks & the moments in time where the lending fee has increased proportionally to large swap trades. Equally i've been looking at periods where swap trades are minimal and where OCC hedging balances are dropping slowly where this has the effect of borrow fees also dropping bit by bit. I have indications that something should happen in the next few days e.g a big volume driven event, but the problem is that the entire market is prepared for a price dump on everything, so even if there is a lot of buying volume next week for the reasons i previously mentioned in my comments above, it would be buying/covering volume into a downwards market meaning that it's a nothingburger.
My entire account is currently on Puts on random stocks like Intel, NVDA, Sono, SPY and KO as well as GME as a hedge against my long GME calls 30c for 2023. Here are my positions minus my GME calls as to not give out the expiries (not that people don't already know them) imgur.com/t1N7eM9
None of this is financial advice. This is not a suggestion for you to do the same. I often lose money and it would be a shame if any of you poor souls followed what i'm doing here and lost money too.
Starting 11-21 days before Coca Cola dividends, the market begins to dump like clockwork. Taking previous dumps in consideration, we see that the dump amount is around 9% for KO which is A LOT for a "stable" company like them.
In this following dump to come i have a price target of $56.3 ish or around 9% from today's $60.63. Similarly based on the incoming KO price dump, i obviously expect the rest of the market to do the same as the dump is market wide after all. My arbitrary price target for SPY is around $360 give or take $5 bucks by the 5'th of Dec, the same applies for the rest of the market as a bottom to this incoming dump.
In the coming days (15/11/2022 - 18/11/2022), we might see a fast SPY pump to $412 or $61.6 for KO as the market prepares to reverse, but i wholeheartedly believe another big dump is coming due to that this week is Opex week and next week's Tuesday is GME's quarterly cycle price run date. For the past several cycles now there's always been a big market event starting right on the dot either on Monday or Tuesday that cause the entire market to go to hell just as everything starts to pump and squeeze. Since next week on Monday and Tuesday we're supposed to see the action from this Friday's option expiries & exercises/sell/buys settling, we're supposed to see big volume on the high IV/Gamma meme stocks, but you can be certain that kind of volume is gonna get crushed as is usual by some freak market event that will magically appear early next week.
I'd like to be more positive about next week and the whole market in general and specifically meme stocks, but unfortunately this is the new reality i've accustomed myself to. Funnily enough i've found a guy that was able to explain the above but in terms of dealer positioning twitter.com/WizOfOps/status/1592507416813670402?s=20&t=36nFCkOhKQ33kCN_2CUkzA which confirms (in my own mind anyway) next week's events. I think the recent micro pump of everything is the effect of retail long puts short calls and the inverse relationship with those vs BD's and hedging e.g you buy a put, that forces someone to hedge it and the market may move against you as more people do so forcing more hedging. So if you bought a GME put, though counter intutitive, it's possible to see a short term price increase even though selling a put should traditionally have this effect and not buying a put... So yeah i think things are a bit nuts right where i have to come out and say that "buying a put can make stonks go up..."
Swaps
Going through the latest swaps, there's literally been minimal action for quite a while now. When there's been sustained crappy low volume trades for a while and no big trades or multiple trades coming in, this is usually a sign that more of the same is about to come e.g more dumping.
OCC Hedging Volume
Some stocks like BYND and a little bit GME showed some promise on last Friday into Monday 11/11/2022 with a decent increase in the hedging balance for BBBY, GME, BYND and a few other stocks, but nothing significantly big enough that would indicate a price run yet. I'm monitoring EOD OCC hedging vol data and hoping for a spike that would indicate a price run, but so far nothing. At least there hasn't been a drop in the hedging balance, so there's a little bit of hope left... but not a lot.
Lending Fees & Swap Trade Timing
I'm going through lending fees for certain stocks & the moments in time where the lending fee has increased proportionally to large swap trades. Equally i've been looking at periods where swap trades are minimal and where OCC hedging balances are dropping slowly where this has the effect of borrow fees also dropping bit by bit. I have indications that something should happen in the next few days e.g a big volume driven event, but the problem is that the entire market is prepared for a price dump on everything, so even if there is a lot of buying volume next week for the reasons i previously mentioned in my comments above, it would be buying/covering volume into a downwards market meaning that it's a nothingburger.
My entire account is currently on Puts on random stocks like Intel, NVDA, Sono, SPY and KO as well as GME as a hedge against my long GME calls 30c for 2023. Here are my positions minus my GME calls as to not give out the expiries (not that people don't already know them) imgur.com/t1N7eM9
None of this is financial advice. This is not a suggestion for you to do the same. I often lose money and it would be a shame if any of you poor souls followed what i'm doing here and lost money too.
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