2024-08-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - gold
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Gold - Bears created a pullback but could not even touch 2500. It’s a little less bullish as of now because the bull trend line broke but market is still above 2500 and the daily 20ema so odds favor another the bulls. If bears create follow through below 2500, I turn bearish for 2450 or lower.
comment: Neutral again at 2520 because we are right above the bull trend line from early August and near 2500, which is huge support for now. Odds favor the bulls to test the upper bear trend line around 2540 again. If bears manage to go into the weekend below 2500, this bull leg is most likely over again and we will test back to 2450 or lower.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2500 - 2570
bull case: Bulls still see this above 2500 and inside a trading range at the highs. They are trading above the daily ema and the bull trend line is still valid. I do think the bears will not fight them for 2500 on the first try, so odds favor the bulls to stay inside the current expanding triangle and test back to the upper trend line around 2540. A weekly close above 2540 would be max bullish.
Invalidation is below 2490.
bear case: Bears finally produced more selling pressure and closed at the lows. Whenever bears printed consecutive bear bars above 2500 over the past 4 months, market was not able to hold above and sold off again. Bears expecting this time to be the same, despite the new ath. They want a reversal to 2400 and their target for tomorrow is a close below 2500.
Invalidation is above 2550.
short term: Neutral between 2500-2520, bullish above and bearish below.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —adjusted 2450 to 2500
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling below bar 8 was decent. Stop had to be above bar 3. Market held below the 1h ema and there was decent selling pressure before.
tl;dr
Gold - Bears created a pullback but could not even touch 2500. It’s a little less bullish as of now because the bull trend line broke but market is still above 2500 and the daily 20ema so odds favor another the bulls. If bears create follow through below 2500, I turn bearish for 2450 or lower.
comment: Neutral again at 2520 because we are right above the bull trend line from early August and near 2500, which is huge support for now. Odds favor the bulls to test the upper bear trend line around 2540 again. If bears manage to go into the weekend below 2500, this bull leg is most likely over again and we will test back to 2450 or lower.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2500 - 2570
bull case: Bulls still see this above 2500 and inside a trading range at the highs. They are trading above the daily ema and the bull trend line is still valid. I do think the bears will not fight them for 2500 on the first try, so odds favor the bulls to stay inside the current expanding triangle and test back to the upper trend line around 2540. A weekly close above 2540 would be max bullish.
Invalidation is below 2490.
bear case: Bears finally produced more selling pressure and closed at the lows. Whenever bears printed consecutive bear bars above 2500 over the past 4 months, market was not able to hold above and sold off again. Bears expecting this time to be the same, despite the new ath. They want a reversal to 2400 and their target for tomorrow is a close below 2500.
Invalidation is above 2550.
short term: Neutral between 2500-2520, bullish above and bearish below.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —adjusted 2450 to 2500
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling below bar 8 was decent. Stop had to be above bar 3. Market held below the 1h ema and there was decent selling pressure before.
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